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Gingrich Time

Can you imagine how happy the Obama reelection team would be if they got to face Newt Gingrich next year? True, if they could pick who they face, it would be Bachmann or Cain, but avoiding Romney, or even Perry, would be unbelievably fortunate. And yet, Rasmussen Reports says it's Gingrich time:

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers shows Gingrich with 32% followed by former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney at 19%. Georgia businessman Herman Cain, who led in Iowa last month, drops to third with 13% of the vote. Texas Congressman Ron Paul draws 10% of the vote in Iowa, while Texas Governor Rick Perry and Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann each grab six percent (6%). Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum draws support from five percent (5%) of caucus-goers while former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman picks up two percent (2%). Only one percent (1%) would prefer some other candidate and six percent (6%) more are undecided.

To be sure, Ras is wholly unreliable and what ax they are grinding is important to know. But how great would it be if Gingrich was the GOP nominee?

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Herman Cain's Brain Misfires Over Libya Question

Rick Perry must be rubbing his hands in delight. He's got company as Herman Cain shows once again he's not ready for prime time. Watch Cain draw a blank on Obama's position on Libya. [More...]

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Newt Gingrich Once Proposed Mandatory Death for Drug Traffickers, Mass Executions

Newt Gingrich, via the New York Times, said in 1995, while he was weighing whether to run for the Presidency:

Speaker Newt Gingrich said on Friday that he would ask Congress to enact legislation imposing the death penalty on drug smugglers, and he suggested that mass executions of people convicted under such a law might prove an effective deterrent.

..."The first time we execute 27 or 30 or 35 people at one time, and they go around Colombia and France and Thailand and Mexico, and they say, 'Hi, would you like to carry some drugs into the U.S.?' the price of carrying drugs will have gone up dramatically."

[More...]

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CBS Poll: Republicans View Romney as Most Electable

Just another sign Republicans are all about grandstanding. They don't even care about winning the election. The latest CBS News Poll finds Republicans overwhelmingly believe Mitt Romney is the only one who can beat Obama, but they still would rather see someone who thinks like them get the nomination -- like Cain, who they believe only has a 20% chance of beating Obama. Perry and Gingrich's odds are even less than Cain's in their eyes.

Four out of ten Republicans believe Mitt Romney would be the most likely candidate to beat President Obama in the general election, according to a new CBS News poll....

[Romney] led Herman Cain by a 2-to-1 margin with 40 percent support. Cain trailed in the category with just 20 percent, followed by Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry, each with six percent.

58% said it's more important that their candidate agree with them on issues than beat Obama.

They just want to make noise. No wonder I've tuned them out. [More...]

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Personhood Amendment Fails in Mississippi

Mississippi voters today defeated a personhood amendment.

[T]he full wording of the measure as it appeared on the ballot define[d] every human being as a person "from the moment of fertilization, cloning or the equivalent thereof."

The Amendment was largely an effort of Keith Mason, co-founder of the group Personhood USA, based in Colorado. The group tried and failed to get the Amendment passed in Colorado in 2008 and 2010. The ACLU says Arkansas, Montana, Florida, Oregon, Nevada may be the next battlegrounds.

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Herman Cain: Another 180 Turn on Abortion

Here we go again with Herman Cain and his ever-evolving abortion stance. First, in February, 2011, he says as President, he'd sign legislation protecting the right of the unborn.

I am a firm believer in the dignity of life and support a ban on partial birth abortion. If I were president, I would sign legislation that would protect the sanctity of life.

And on October 7, he says at the Values Voters Summit (video here):

So I happen to believe that the Founding Fathers put it in that order— life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness—for a reason. You can pursue happiness all you want to, as long as you don’t tread on somebody else’s liberty....You can pursue liberty all you want to, as long as you don’t tread on somebody else’s life. And that includes the life of the unborn.”

[More...]

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Herman Cain Begins Walk-back on "Pro-Choice" Statements

As Big Tent Democrat predicted the other day, Herman Cain has begun the walk-back from his seemingly pro-choice statements made the other day to Piers Morgan.

Via Kos, he said today abortions should be illegal but it's up to each family to decide whether to have one.

So it's up to each family to decide whether to break the law? [More...]

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Herman Cain: Would Sign Federal Law Protecting Sanctity of Life

Herman Cain on Feb. 23, 2011 said he would sign federal legislation that protects the sanctity of life

I am a firm believer in the dignity of life and support a ban on partial birth abortion. If I were president, I would sign legislation that would protect the sanctity of life. Additionally, I would be in favor of any legislation that would encourage adoptions as a loving and safe alternative to abortion.

Herman Cain at the Value Voters Summit:

  • "I believe in life from conception, no exceptions."
  • "I would have asked the Department of Justice to enforce the Defense of Marriage Act"

[More...]

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Republican Debate: Anyone Watching?

I have yet to see a Republican debate, nor do I care to. For those who are following, here's a place to discuss it. Tonight's final debate of the series, whatever that means, takes place in Las Vegas.

Who's in it: Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.), Pizza CEO Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul Rick Perry, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum.

It begins at 8 pm ET, airs on CNN, will stream live, and is hosted by Anderson Cooper. Who are their commentators? [More...]

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Cain "Jokes" About Electrified Border Fence

Herman Cain, the newest Republican flavor of the week, told those attending a Tennessee rally yesterday about his response to a someone who had challenged his pro-border fence position on his call-in radio show. Cain said he responded:

When I'm in charge of the fence, we going to have a fence. It's going to be 20 feet high. It's going to have barbed wire on the top. It's going to be electrocuted, electrified," Cain said. "And there's going to be a sign on the other side that says it will kill you."

Today on Meet the Press, he said he was joking: [More...]

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The Candidates Matter

Nate Silver writes about Herman Cain:

The other litmus test is Iowa, where there have been few credible polls conducted in recent weeks. But the former leader in Iowa, Mrs. Bachmann, has since seen her numbers slump badly in national polls. Tim Pawlenty has dropped out of the running, meanwhile, while Mr. Romney has yet to fully commit to the state for fear of raising expectations.

Mr. Cain’s winning Iowa would be a potential game-changer. Iowa has not historically been as important for Republican voters as for Democrats, but a win there would give rank-and-file Republicans — many of whom like Mr. Cain but are not convinced that he is viable — confidence that a vote for him would not be wasted.

I don't believe that for a second. Herman Cain has no chance of winning the nomination. He is a vanity candidate with no organization, skill or seriousness. He would have no chance of winning a general election. These "predictive" models have value when judging credible candidates. But Herman Cain is not a serious candidate. Only Rick Perry has a theoretical chance of beating Romney. I say theoretical because Perry is a terrible candidate. Here is a predictive model I believe in - terrible candidates will campaign terribly. Romney knows what he is doing. Perry doesn't. Perry's hope is that the Media (especially Fox) decides to go after Romney. Fox has settled on Romney I think and the rest of the Media seems unlikely to completely turn on him. There will be no NBC October 2008 type debate to try and topple Romney. Absent some Romney scandal emerging, I think the GOP race is over. More . . .

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Sarah Palin Announces She Will Not Run for President

Sarah Palin says she's not running for President in 2012.

Let's just hope she means it.

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NY Elects Republican to Replace Anthony Weiner

Conservative Republican Bob Turner was elected yesterday to replace Rep. Anthony Weiner. The District encompassed much of Queens and a small part of Brooklyn:

Turner, 70, a retired cable television executive who has never served in elective office, defeated Democratic State Assemblyman David Weprin, 55, who has two decades of public service experience, to fill the seat left vacant when Anthony Weiner (D) resigned in disgrace in June after more than 12 years in the House.

The last time a Republican won in that district was in the 1920's.

Many will see it a referendum on Obama and the economy, and a sign for 2012. I think it's way too soon for that, too many unforeseen things can happen to change the public's mind between now and then. Voters are fickle and can change like the wind. Also, Israel/Palestine may have been a significant factor in this particular race: [More...]

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New Poll: Obama Beats Perry and Romney

Public Policy Polling released a new poll today. President Obama would beat Mitt Romney by 4 points and Rick Perry by 11 points.

The president’s more solid standing in the Perry and Romney horseraces comes from consolidating his party support. He was losing 13% of Democrats to each candidate in August, but only 11% to Romney and 9% to Perry now. Obama has meanwhile upped his own crossover support, from 5% to 9% of Republicans versus Romney and 10% to 11% against Perry. The president leads Perry by ten points with independents, but Romney tops Obama by two with them.

One reason for Obama's increase over Perry: Perry's position on social security, which is likely to cost him swing voters.

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2012: Analyst Says 7 States Will Decide Presidency

Political analyst Larry Sabato writes in the Wall St. Journal that the 2012 presidential election will come down to 7 super-swing states:

Colorado (9), Florida (29), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Ohio (18) and Virginia (13).

Why these 7? He says it's all in the electoral college math, the polls don't mean much. Sabato says:

Republicans therefore are a lock or lead in 24 states for 206 electoral votes, and Democrats have or lead in 19 states for 247 electoral votes.

There's a big difference between a lock and a lead so I'm not putting much stock in this. And what if there's a third party candidate on either side? Sabato says that could put a wrench in things. Redistricting (as in Ohio and "Northern Frost Belt" states) ) could also make a difference according to Sabato since the Republicans will gain about 6 electors from it.

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