Received by e-mail from the Catholic Democrats Communnications PAC:

An independent nationwide survey run the week of September 1, 2008, by the Catholic Democrats Communications Political Action Committee shows that nearly all the Catholic voters who voted for Sen. Hillary Clinton will now cast the vote for Sen. Barack Obama. Nearly 500 Catholics responded to the survey.

It is clear that the alleged defection of Clinton voters to McCain is not happening, " said Bill Roth, President of the PAC. "Nearly 95% of the Clinton voters now intend to vote for Sen. Obama. This repudiates the idea that Gov. Palin should somehow appeal to the Clinton voter." [More...]

GOP blogger Patrick Ruffini argues that:

[W]hen the apolitical Republican base intensifies, usually in September (and as late as late October in the losing '92 and '96 races), they usually leave the media scratching their heads about where the previous 16 months of self-delusion went. In every election in the last 20 years save for 2000, the Democrat looked better in June than they did on Election Day. And it's looking like that will be the case again in 2008.

Is that accurate? Not really. David Paul Kuhn of Politico looked at Gallup polling in July in Presidential elections of the last 20 years and found that the results show a mixed bag:

Some good lines from Hillary Clinton in her campaigning in Florida for Barack Obama. The NYTimes reports:

In Orlando, Mrs. Clinton appeared at a convention of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, which was one of the first unions to endorse her for president and which has yet to endorse a candidate in the general election. Drawing cheers and applause from the 1,600 people in the room, Mrs. Clinton said that “we must work as hard as we possibly can” to elect Mr. Obama, and suggested that her supporters needed to put aside personal loyalty to her former candidacy and embrace him as the best hope for their interests.

“Who are you for?” Mrs. Clinton said. “That’s the wrong question. It should be: Who is for you? Who will fight for you?” Shortly afterward, the union workers made Mrs. Clinton an honorary member, and she replied by asking them for an endorsement of Mr. Obama. “Aye!” they cheered.

(Emphasis supplied.) More . . .

When Barack Obama decided to forego the public finance system in the general election, it was with the expectation that his campaign's fundraising prowess would give Obama a decided advantage over the McCain campaign, which opted in to the public finance system. McCain received $84 million this month from the public finance system, while continuing to raise funds for the RNC and state GOP parties. And the NYTimes reports Obama's campaign is dissatisfied with its fundraising:

[T]he [Obama] campaign is struggling to meet ambitious fund-raising goals it set for the campaign and the party. It collected in June and July far less from Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s donors than originally projected. Moreover, Mr. McCain, unlike Mr. Obama, will have the luxury of concentrating almost entirely on campaigning instead of raising money, as Mr. Obama must do.

More . . .

At a campaign rally Monday night, Sen. Barack Obama explained his views on why we need habeas corpus for everyone, even those suspected of terrorism:

"Habeas corpus ... is the foundation of Anglo-American law, which says very simply, if the government grabs you, then you have the right to at least ask, `Why was I grabbed?' and say, `Maybe, you've got the wrong person.'

"The reason we have that safeguard is we don't always have the right person. We don't always catch the right person. "We may think this is Muhammad the terrorist. It might be Muhammad the cab driver. You may think it's Barack the bomb-thrower. But it might be Barack, the guy running for president."

As to Gov. Sarah Palin's "reading their rights" slam of him during her acceptance speech, he responded: [More...]

More information showing Ethics Reformer and Cost Cutter may be misnomers when applied to Gov. Sarah Palin -- The Washington Post reports:

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin has billed taxpayers for 312 nights spent in her own home during her first 19 months in office, charging a "per diem" allowance intended to cover meals and incidental expenses while traveling on state business.

The governor also has charged the state for travel expenses to take her children on official out-of-town missions. And her husband, Todd, has billed the state for expenses and a daily allowance for trips he makes on official business for his wife.

It's all seems legal, although there are some questionable items, but it doesn't fit too well with the image of her as one who is focused on cost cutting and savings to Alaskans: [More...]

Another segment of Bill O'Reilly's interview with Sen. Barack Obama will air tonight on Fox. Over at MSNBC, Keith Olbermann will interview Obama.

If you watch either one, let us know what you think, not just of Obama, but of the questions and interviewing techniques of O'Reilly and Olbermann.

Did either interview give you any new insights?

I have a transcript of the Obama-Olbermann interview but it's embargoed until 8:30 pm ET and I always honor embargoes.

In line with other polls released today (see, e.g, today's CBS poll, which has McCain 46-44), the ABC/WaPo poll shows a tight race, McCain 49-47. The highlight however is the big move among white women:

White women have moved from 50-42 percent in Obama's favor before the conventions to 53-41 percent for McCain now, a 20-point shift in the margin that's one of the single biggest post-convention changes in voter preferences. The other, also to McCain's advantage, is in the battleground Midwest, where he's moved from a 19-point deficit to a 7-point edge.

In essence, Obama opened the door by not picking Hillary Clinton and McCain walked through it. McCain's Palin gamble clearly has worked. He is in the game. And he would not have been if he had not chosen Palin. And McCain would not have chosen Palin if Obama had picked Clinton.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Sarah Palin said:

[T]he Republican vice presidential nominee claimed that lending giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had "gotten too big and too expensive to the taxpayers." The companies, as McClatchy reported, "aren't taxpayer funded but operate as private companies. The takeover may result in a taxpayer bailout during reorganization."

(Emphasis supplied.) Palin issued standard issue Republican nonsensical cant (See Curve, Laffer) on matters economic - which, as usual, is utter nonsense. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will NOW become "too expensive for taxpayers" because the government is going to bail them out. That said, the bailout plan is probably a good idea, as Krugman explains.

Is this the great gaffe of the century? Not really. To me it is standard issue GOP BS. Which seems the stronger political point to me. McCain-Palin = Bush's Third Term.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Like the Ras poll, the CNN poll shows a tied race:

A new national poll taken entirely after the end of the Republican convention suggests the race for the White House between John McCain and Barack Obama is dead even. A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll out Monday afternoon has McCain and Obama tied at 48 percent each among registered voters questioned. Three percent of voters are undecided in the survey, which was conducted Friday through Sunday.

This is where we are at now. Obama will likely slide a few points ahead by the end of the week as the GOP Convention bounce fades. It remains Obama's race to lose imo.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Yes, you have read it here, but Howard Wolfson is right:

Democrats are running against John McCain, not Sarah Palin. Running against Gov. Palin instead of Senator McCain would be a mistake -- ultimately voters will make their assessments based on the strength and weaknesses of the top of the tickets. If anything, Democrats should be talking about McCain-Bush, not McCain-Palin. Every day we are focused on Palin is a day we are not amplifying the Obama campaign's message that Senator McCain simply represents four more years of President Bush.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Ras' first full post GOP convention poll is out:

In the first national polling results based entirely on interviews conducted after the Republican National Convention, McCain attracts 47% of the vote while Obama earns 46%. When "leaners" are included, it’s McCain 48% and Obama 47%.

Ras weights his polls by party ID so he takes out the "voter enthusiasm" variable that Gallup LV polls are plagued with (Gallup polls swing as wildly as any you will find.) McCain by 1 seems about right to me right now. By midweek, Obama will push in front narrowly imo.