It turns out that the rest of the political world has caught up to me and Paul Krugman:

The central fact of this year’s election is that voters are fed up with Republican rule. The only way Mr. McCain can win the presidential race is if it becomes a contest of personalities rather than parties . . .

The Obama campaign, on the other hand, doesn’t need to convince voters either that he’s the awesomest candidate ever or that Mr. McCain is a villain. All it has to do is tarnish Mr. McCain’s image enough so that voters see this as a race between a Democrat and a Republican. And that’s a race the Democrat will easily win.

(Emphasis supplied.) You hear this from everyone now, including David Axelrod on ABC's This Week yesterday. So it is out with the Politics of Change, the Post Partisan Unity Schtick, in with the Politics of Contrast. About time.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

CNN reports:

In a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll out Sunday night, 47 percent of those questioned are backing Obama with an equal amount supporting the Arizona senator.

Of all the non-Hillary choices, Biden is clearly the best one politically. And even he did not help according to this poll. In discussing polling, too many "analysts" misunderstand the importance of favorability findings. They place great stock in the silly "more likely/less likely" questions pollsters seem to love. Here is the bottom line - Hillary Clinton would have delivered millions of votes for Obama, no one else could:

Everything has been late in this general election. The Democratic nominee was not decided until June. The Democratic vice presidential nominee was not publically announced until August 23. The Democratic Convention does not start until August 25, the latest date in recent history. The Republican vice presidential nominee will not be named until August 29 at the earliest. And the Republicans will hold the latest convention in memory, which will begin ON Labor Day, the traditional kickoff of the Fall campaign.

After the end of the GOP Convention, only 3 weeks will pass before the first Presidential debate on September 26. That is likely to be the most important event of the general election campaign. Only 6 days later, the VP debate will be held on October 2. Just 5 days later comes the second Presidential debate on October 7. And the final Presidential debate comes 8 days after that, on October 15. After that just 20 days remain until the election.

Bottom line, this notion that "it's early" is simply wrong. Folks who say that are thinking in terms of previous electoral calendars. The fierce urgency of now is upon us already in this election.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

CNN reports:

Clinton’s team immediately dubbed the ad misleading. "Hillary Clinton's support of Barack Obama is pretty clear,” said Clinton spokeswoman Kathleen Strand. “She has said repeatedly that Barack Obama and she share a commitment to changing the direction of the country, getting us out of Iraq, and expanding access to health care. John McCain doesn't. It's interesting how those remarks didn't make it into his ad."

By Big Tent Democrat

Matt Yglesias makes a good point:

Apparently on ABC this morning Mark Halperin was arguing that housegate would ultimately wind up being bad for . . . Barack Obama because . . . all news is good news for John McCain it “opened the door” to Rezko, Ayers, Wright and other attacks on Obama.

. . . [T]he underlying premises that a door needs to be opened for McCain to deploy those kind of attacks is bizarre. Nothing was stopping the McCain campaign from “going there” . . . They just weren’t doing it because they didn’t think it was the correct time[.] . . . But you’d have to be extraordinarily naive to believe that the McCain campaign was genuinely just not going to mention any of this stuff until Mean Ol’ Barack came along to make fun of the idea of being so rich . . .

Quite so. As silly as the idea that if Hillary Clinton had not mentioned Obama's lack of experience, McCain would not have mentioned it. There was a time when that argument was treated as NOT "extraordinarily naive" and "bizarre." Funny that.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Mason Dixon polls in Colorado and New Mexico provide a mixed bag of news. In Colorado, M-D shows Obama with a 3 point lead, 46-43 and in New Mexico, it shows McCain with a 4 point lead. Earlier I posted on the M-D poll showing McCain with a 7 point lead in Nevada. An earlier Q poll had McCain ahead in Colorado.

The Obama electoral map seems to show Virginia (13 EVs), Iowa (7 EVs), Colorado (9 EVs), New Mexico (5 EVs) and Nevada (5 EVs) as top hopes for shifting red states to blue states. Obama is also competitive in Ohio (20 EVs) (some would argue he is competitive in Florida (27 EVs), I am not one of those people.) McCain is likely aiming at Michigan (17 EVs) and New Hampshire (4 EVs) as pickup opportunities. More . . .

As most of you know by now, the difference maker for me in supporting Barack Obama in the primaries was the fact the he is the Media Darling of the election. Today, in the NYTimes, you see what I mean in Maureen Dowd's column:

[I]t’s hard to believe that John McCain is now in danger of exceeding his credit limit on the equivalent of an American Express black card. His campaign is cheapening his greatest strength — and making a mockery of his already dubious claim that he’s reticent to talk about his P.O.W. experience — by flashing the P.O.W. card to rebut any criticism, no matter how unrelated. The captivity is already amply displayed in posters and TV advertisements.

If anyone but Obama were the Democratic nominee, Dowd and the Media would never have written anything like that. That is what being the Media Darling means. It is a powerful asset for a political candidate.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Here's one, via Glenn Reynolds:

Florida Sen. Bill Nelson said he talked with Obama last Tuesday and put forth two names: Biden and Clinton. "He's an excellent choice for Barack in Florida," Nelson said of Biden, noting that he "knows all the players on the world stage," but has never lost touch with his working-class roots. "He's got appeal across the board," Nelson said.

Why? Because folks like Bill Nelson, a Clinton supporter and a fighter for seating the Florida delegation to the convention, have some credibility with Clinton supporters. Look at how Nelson frames the issue. He says he recommended Clinton and Biden. He makes it seem picking Biden is a nod to Clinton. That is the type of framing I would use if I was the Obama campaign.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

andgarden points us to two state polls. A Colorado Q poll:

Sen. Barack Obama enters the Democratic National Convention in a dead heat with Sen. John McCain for Colorado's crucial nine electoral votes, according to a Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters released today. Sen. McCain has 47 percent to Sen. Obama's 46 percent [McCain was up 2 in a June Q poll].

And Mason Dixon's Nevada poll has McCain by 7:

As both parties aim to put the diverse and growing swing state into play, McCain has taken the lead by a margin of 46 percent to Obama's 39 percent, with 15 percent undecided, according to the poll.

By Big Tent Democrat

ABC/WaPo poll:

Obama maintains a narrow, six-point edge over McCain among registered voters. Among those most likely to vote, 49 percent back Obama and 45 percent back McCain.

Curiously, WaPo shows a narrowing from the previous RV result but a slight increase in its LV result. It all amounts to no change really. But the changes in the RV result track with two key indicators - President Bush's approval rating, which ticked up 2 (from 28 to 30) and the right track/wrong track result (right track went up from 14 to 19).

The other curious result here is this - "Obama's overall lead in the new poll is attributable in large measure to a nearly 20-point advantage among female voters. He trails McCain by nine points among men." This does not translate for me. Women are likelier voters than men. this should translate into a 6 point LV lead for Obama. the only explanation I can see is that Obama does not have as big a lead among the likeliest women voters (older womnen). More . . .

Provided by Frank Rich:

What Obama also should have learned by now is that the press is not his friend.

Of course, Rich is so for Obama, that he hurts him like this:

So while Obama can continue to try to reassure resistant Clinton loyalists in Appalachia that he’s not a bogeyman from Madrassaland . . .

Relatedly, Todd Beeton provides an interesting anecdote from Denver:

On my shuttle to the hotel, I encountered a storm of another kind: an Obama delegate from Illinois and a Clinton delegate from Massachusetts. When she said she was a Hillary delegate, the Obama delegate said facetiously: "Oh they're letting you in here, are they?" She retorted (in a friendly but stern way): "That's what's wrong with Obama folks. You're not reaching out to the Hillary people." It was the second time in as many days that I'd heard the same complaint from a Hillary supporter.

It is this arrogance that could sink Obama's campaign. Obama's supporters I find are his worst enemies now.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Yes, I've been brooding about our new VP candidate. The only people I've seen doing back flips over the Biden affair are Joe Biden and John McCain. A million unlikely voters got text messages at 3am with the "The VP Announcement!" Yeah!!! They opened their texts and saw...What? Joe Biden?  Oh. And went back to sleep.

If Joe Biden had his way all these years with the laws he's been writing, Hunter would have been in jail.[more...]