In an earlier post about the rumor that Sen. Barack Obama will pick Evan Bayh as his running mate, I said I didn't have a problem with it. I may or may not be rethinking this. Bayh is not entirely consistent on crime issues, although he seems to have improved a bit in recent years (except for FISA and since I opposed any remake of FISA, even one without telecom immunity, I'm leaving that alone for the moment):

In 1996, Sen. Bayh spoke at the Democratic National Convention when Bill Clinton was nominated for a second term. We all know how bad Clinton was for Defendants' rights. (To his credit, he's come around quite a bit since being President -- maybe Bayh has too.) Anyway, Here's what Bayh said at the convention in 1996:

But a shadow threatens to spread over this new opportunity: Crime and violence. They prey upon our children and on our parents. Violence must be stopped. Violent criminals must be severely punished. And under President Clinton, they are.

Thanks to him, dangerous repeat offenders are going to jail for life - with no chance for parole. He is putting 100,000 more police on our streets. And that adds up. For each crime that's prevented - a victim is spared.

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SUSA's Florida poll has McCain up 6, 50-44. Again, the SUSA demos are where the action is. McCain leads among whites (73% of the electorate) 57-38, Obama among Latinos (13%) 48-42 and A-As (11%) 84-16 (obviously too low, SUSA has consistently underpolled Obama's A-A support). Making the adjustment to Obama 95-5 among African Americans, still leaves McCain up 5.

Here is why Obama is losing and likely will lose Florida, McCain leads among women 51-44 and voters 65+ (30% of the electorate) 54-41. Obama has one chance to win in Florida, pick Hillary Clinton as his VP. If he does not, then there is no point to wasting resources in Florida.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Sen. Evan Bayh is going to introduce Sen. Barack Obama at an event in Bayh's home town of Indiana on Wednesday.

Is that any reason to cancel a baseball game the night before?

Bayh's team was scheduled to play "the One-Hitters", which is the team of Students for a Sensible Drug Policy. Team captain and SSDP executive director Kris Krane and SSDP's Government Relations Director Tom Angell think something is up and there could be a big announcement Wednesday by Obama and Bayh.

Since Tom thought it important enough to e-mail me about it, which he only does with big news, I'm thinking there may be something to this.

For the record, I'm fine with Sen. Bayh as the Vice Presidential candidate.

I want to see the video, but, and I know Obama supporters do not like to hear this, when Bill Clinton has to assert on Good Morning America that he is "not a racist," that is NOT good for Obama. But that is where we are:

[ABC's Kate]Snow asked Clinton, "Do you personally have any regrets about what you did campaigning for your wife?" With his arms folded and looking a bit tense, Clinton replied, "Yes, but not the ones you think. And it would be counterproductive for me to talk about it."

Barely pausing for a breath, he added, "There are things I wish I'd urged her to do, things I wish I had said, things I wish I hadn't said. But I am not a racist, I never made a racist comment, and I didn't attack him personally," a clear allusion to Sen. Barack Obama.

President Clinton is a big boy, and can take care of himself, but that he has to say that is simply disgraceful.

By Big Tent Democrat

A new July 10-13 WaPo/Harvard poll shows Barack Obama with a wide lead among voters earning less than $30,000/yr, 58-28 (the 24% undecided is hard to explain). This is not unusual for the Democratic candidate for President - John Kerry won voters earning less than 15k/yr by 63-37 and those earning between 15 and 30k/yr 57-42. Jointly, these two income groups were 23% of the electorate in 2004. Obama's lead, according to WaPo, stems from "overwhelming support from two traditional Democratic constituencies: African Americans and Hispanics."

The finding that is attracting attention is Obama winning whites who earn less than 30k/year by 47-37. Some say this "knock[s] down the idea that Obama can't win the vote of White low-income workers." But that has never been the question. The question is can he win enough white working class voters (50k/year or less income being the traditional definition) to win the election. In case you missed it, John Kerry lost the election in 2004. I think Obama can and will win the election. Heck, I say he is a shoo-in. The question is this - is winning 47-37 now, with 16% undecided a good result? I do not know, but I think it is nothing to crow about.

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One of the most clever aspects of the McCain race card play last week was the defense of the Clintons against the disgraceful smears that came from many quarters, including many Obama supporters. Of course the defense was cynical - politics is politics. But consider what will be said about Hillary and Bill Clinton when these same people start justifying why Obama did not choose Hillary as his VP. The Politico asks the obvious question - what happens when Hillary is not chosen by Obama? Mario Cuomo says:

No matter who he picks, the question is going to be raised: Are you telling me that this person would be a better qualified vice president than Hillary Clinton?

Indeed. And the response to that query from some Obama supporters will denigrate Hillary Clinton. That will hurt Obama.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

If you had to guess which presidential candidate would be attending the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally in South Dakota, would you pick the 47 year old or the 72 year old? If you picked Sen. Obama, you'd be wrong. McCain is making an appearance at Sturgis tomorrow night.

Sen. Obama will be celebrating his birthday in Michigan where he is set to unveil a new energy plan. Tomorrow night he'll be at a fundraiser in Boston.

If you had to guess which presidential candidate was consulting Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice on foreign affairs would you pick the one from her party -- a party which has frequently suggested she be added to the ticket as the VP candidate -- or the candidate from the other party? The Aspen Daily News, citing a new Time Magazine article, says it's Obama who has been consulting Condi Rice on foreign affairs.

We shouldn't lose sight of the fact that laws are made by the legislature, not the president. Any proposal for a substantial change in the law that the president sends to Congress is likely to be amended repeatedly before it comes back to the president for a signature.

Recognizing that reality, presidential platforms tend to be more general than specific. Still, it appears the Democratic platform will recognize (as it should) the valuable contributions that Hillary Clinton and others have made to the debate over health care reform.

The committee charged with updating the platform agreed to include suggestions from Clinton, whose campaign emphasized universal health care.

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Sen. Barack Obama has sent a letter to the DNC asking that the Florida and Michigan delegations be seated in full. As much as we knew this would happen, it still strikes a sore spot.

Open Left provides direct evidence of why John Kerry is a loser. From Meet the Press:

MR. BROKAW: We're going to get to all those issues, but I also want to raise what a surrogate for Senator Obama had to say to my friend Bob Schieffer on "Face the Nation." This is former General Wesley Clark talking about John McCain. He said, "I don't think riding in a fighter plane and getting shot down is a qualification to be president." He described him as untested and untried. With all due respect, Senator Kerry, he could have been talking about your qualifications. You're a Vietnam veteran...

SEN. KERRY: Yeah, I, I don't agree. I don't agree with Wes Clark's comment. I think it was entirely inappropriate. I have nothing but enormous respect for John McCain's service. . . . I have awe for John McCain's experience as a prisoner of war, and he, and he does understand duty and service. . . .

(Emphasis supplied.) John Kerry embodies the loser wing of the Democratic Party. He is a terrible surrogate in all circumstances, and was particularly bad today. Why the Obama camp continues to trot him out is beyond comprehension.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

John McCain broke his promise to run a respectful campaign -- again -- when he approved an ad that compared Barack Obama to Paris Hilton and Britney Spears. Will the tactic backfire?

For intelligent independents who had believed that Mr McCain was a cut above all that, it is a sadly disillusioning thing to see. ... The prevailing tone of his new campaign adverts is contempt: they sneer, they mock and they outrageously misrepresent. ...

Some speculate that this new turn in strategy could succeed and may indeed already be working. Mr Obama’s still narrow lead in the polls appeared to wobble last week under the onslaught. That makes it no easier to watch Mr McCain, of all people, descend to gutter politics. The Republican spent years gaining the respect of allies and opponents alike for his integrity and plain speaking. Now, it seems, he would rather lose a reputation than lose an election.

McCain's warped focus on personality rather than issues has likely caused him the support of two voters: Paris Hilton's parents. Kathy Hilton called the ad "a complete waste of the money John McCain's contributors have donated to his campaign." She has a right to say that, since it's her money that's being wasted. She and her husband each donated $2,300 to McCain this year. Think they'll ask for a refund?

It is easy to dismiss David Broder because he so often writes foolish things. For example, in today's column, he describes Ted Stevens, whose indictment alleges that he was doing political and legislative favors in exchange for expensive contracting work on his properties, as part of:

the rear guard of a generation of senators who see it as their principal responsibility to help their chronically needy citizens obtain the federal largess that can spell the difference between subsistence and a decent living.

(Emphasis supplied.) Um, Stevens was just labelled by the Department of Justice as a two bit grafter. Foolish, Broder, foolish. But what about Broder's claim that he will "win again" in the 2008 election, that High Broderism will be triumphant? That claim requires some examination. More . . .