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More Electoral Vote Predictions

Markos of Daily Kos gives his electoral vote predictions. He thinks Obama will win 390 to 148.

It's time for me to give my prediction: Obama either wins 383 to 155 or 356 to 182. My maps are below:

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Federal Judge Refuses Extended Voting Hours in Virginia

A lot of eyes will be on Virginia tomorrow. Today, a federal judge rejected a lawsuit by the NAACP to extend voting hours.

The lawsuit, filed last week, contends that the state is violating the U.S. and state constitutions by not providing enough voting machines, poll workers and polling places, particularly in precincts with large minority populations. The shortages could result in long lines and lost votes, the suit says.

"We are urging all voters to stand in line," NAACP President Ben Jealous said after the ruling. "Americans have waited 230 years for this -- a multi-gender, multi-generational, multiracial [campaign]. This is a big day. Stay in line."

Disabled and elederly voters can vote curbside. And anyone in line at 7pm when the polls close will get to vote. There are more than 5 million registered voters in the state.

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Karl Rove's Prediction: Obama 338, McCain 200

Via the LA Times, Karl Rove has released his final electoral map predictions.

The final Rove & Co. electoral map (pdf)of the 2008 election cycle points to a 338-200 Barack Obama electoral vote victory over John McCain tomorrow.

All remaining toss-up states have been allocated to the candidate leading in them, with Florida (27 EV) going to Obama, and Indiana (11 EV), Missouri (11 EV), North Carolina (15 EV), and North Dakota (3 EV) going to McCain. The two candidates are in a dead heat in Missouri and North Carolina, but they go to McCain because the most recent polls conducted over this past weekend show him narrowly ahead. Florida, too, could end up in McCain’s column since he’s benefited from recent movement in the state.

Rove's predictions are only 1 EV different than Democratic strategist William Arnone's which I wrote about here.

It will be an early election night if Obama takes PA, FL and Ohio. Does anyone forsee any surprises? I think Obama has a decent shot at North Carolina and a chance at Indiana. I won't be surprised if he tops 350 electoral votes. But I'll gladly take 338 or 339.

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The Role Blogs Played in the Election

The National Journal interviewed a lot of bloggers about the role blogs played in this year's presidential election and their predictions for tomorrow.

Not surprisingly, some bloggers viewed themselves as engaging readers in the political process and others as media watchdogs.The actual question we were asked was "What role do you think bloggers in general (and your blog in particular) have played in this election cycle?"

My answer:

Holding the primary candidates' feet to the fire. Debunking right-wing spin. Promoting individual engagement in the electoral process (through comments which have generated communities of commenters.)

The predictions, broken down by Left and right leaning blogs are here. Of the Right wing blogs. 59% say Obama will win, 41% say McCain will win. On the left, 100% of the bloggers call it for Obama.

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A Prediction Report: Obama 339 Electoral Votes, McCain 199

William Arnone, author of previous reports on the key states in the primaries and the electoral vote, has prepared his final assessment of who is likely to carry each state in Tuesday's Presidential election. I am publishing the report with his permission.

His summary:

The final assessment shows that the Democratic ticket of Senator Barack Obama of Illinois and Senator Joe Biden of Delaware will win 27 states (including the District of Columbia) and part of one state (Nebraska) with 339 electoral votes.

The Republican Presidential ticket of Senator John McCain of Arizona and Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska will win 23 states and parts of one state (Nebraska) with 199 electoral votes. The number of electoral votes needed to win is 270.

More...

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Obama's Grandmother Died

Barack Obama's grandmother died. He took a break from campaigning to visit her a little more than a week ago.

"It is with great sadness that we announce that our grandmother, Madelyn Dunham, has died peacefully after a battle with cancer," Obama said in a joint statement with his sister, Maya Soetoro-Ng. "She was the cornerstone of our family, and a woman of extraordinary accomplishment, strength, and humility."

Rest in peace, Madelyn Dunham.

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Wyoming's Casper Tribune Endorses Obama

In an editorial today, the Casper Tribune endorsed Sen. Barack Obama. It says Obama is better on economic and energy issues and McCain flubbed by picking Gov. Sarah Palin. In describing McCain it says:

If the John McCain of 2000 saw today's counterpart, he wouldn't recognize himself. McCain is no longer a GOP maverick, or the war hero whose principles were unwavering. He has flip-flopped on issues ranging from tax cuts to torture in an effort to win over the conservative base of his party. He has waged a dismal campaign based on fear and divisiveness.

On Obama: [More...]

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Obama's Jewish Support

Sen. Barack Obama has received the endorsement of three leading Jewish newspapers:

Here's a very moving video by Israelis who support Obama.

More...

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Even Fox Gives Up The Ghost: Obama 50, McCain 43

The fat lady is singing pollwise:

With just one day to go before Election Day, Barack Obama has a 7 percentage point lead over John McCain -- 50-43 percent, according to the final FOX News pre-election poll of likely voters. At the end of October, Obama led by 47-44 percent among likely voters, and by 49-40 percent about ten days ago (Oct 20-21).

Update - And now the last resisters among the polls fall - IBD/TIPP has Obama by 5 and Battleground has Obama by 6. Not a single poll, not one, has Obama with less than a 5 point lead.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

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Dem Landslide: Lead By 12 In Gallup Generic Congressional Ballot

The landslide tomorrow will be a DEMOCRATIC landslide, not a post partisan unity schtick landslide. Congressional Dems will win bigger than Obama. So says Gallup:

Gallup's final pre-election allocated estimate of the national 2008 vote for Congress -- from Gallup Poll Daily tracking conducted Oct. 31-Nov. 2 -- gives the Democrats a 12 percentage-point lead over the Republicans among likely voters, 53% to 41%. . . . In 2006, Gallup found the Democrats with an 11-point lead among registered voters, and a 7-point lead among likely voters, right before the election. The Democrats won 54.1% of all votes cast nationally for Congress, and a 31-seat advantage. On that basis alone, their current 12-point generic ballot lead could result in a higher share of the two-party vote than they had in 2006.

This is what a fair, honest and reasonable observer would call a mandate for Democratic progressive change.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

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Qunnipiac: Obama Leads in Ohio, PA

Quinnipiac released its final big swing state poll this morning. Obama is ahead in Ohio and PA. Florida is too close to call.

"Sen. Obama appears headed for the best showing of any Democratic candidate among white voters in a generation, going back at least to Jimmy Carter in 1976 and perhaps even to Lyndon Johnson in 1964," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Obama leads by 10 in PA and 7 in Ohio. He's up 2 in FL, within the margin of error. As for McCain's last stand in PA:

"In the end, Sen. John McCain's troops in Central Pennsylvania, led by veterans, disaffected Sen. Hillary Clinton supporters and God and gun clingers, will be swept over by a wave of young black and urban new voters, giving Sen. Barack Obama the Keystone State," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

[More...]

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Memorable Moments of the Election

Via Atrios, check out this list of 2008 electoral moments. If it were put to music, I hear Billy Joel and We Didn't Start the Fire.

This is an open thread.

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