Talk is already underway about the impact of the 2014 elections on 2016. Andrew Romano says Hillary Clinton is the real winner of yesterday's election.

Take a closer look at demography, geography and the road ahead for the parties, and it’s clear that the long-term winner of the 2014 midterms wasn’t the GOP at all. The long-term winner, in fact, wasn’t even on the ballot this year. Her name is Hillary Clinton.

Romano proceeds to crunch the numbers to support his theory.

The Washington Post reports Hillary and Bill Clinton have been cozying up with former San Antonio mayor Julian Castro, giving rise to speculation she might tab him as her running mate.

Castro has been a nationally rising star since the 2012 Democratic Convention. (I wrote at the time, "Michelle Obama was good, but hands down, the star of the night was Julian Castro.) In May, Obama nominated him as Secretary of HUD. He will be sworn in on Monday. His twin brother Joaquin is a Texas congressman.

Here is the new interview with Hillary Clinton in the Atlantic on Syria, ISIS, Israel and Gaza, Libya and Obama's foreign policy.

Also, the New York Times has a new profile on ISIS leader al Baghdadi today, U.S. Actions in Iraq Fueled Rise of a Rebel. It claims Hillary has accused Obama of aiding the rise of ISIS by both withdrawing troops from Iraq and not intervening in Syria: [More...]

Politico today has an article, Hillary Clinton's Shadow Campaign, about a group of her supporters gearing up for 2016.

More than two dozen people in her orbit interviewed for this article described a virtual campaign in waiting — a term that itself makes some of Clinton’s supporters bristle — consisting of longtime Clinton loyalists as well as people who worked doggedly to elect her onetime rival Obama.

It says there's a group of insiders and ones not so close, and they don't always see eye to eye.

The article has some speculation about who might be at the helm of her 2016 campaign, and some details about the roles of Bill and Chelsea (who has hinted 2014 may be the year for a baby.)

In interviews for this article, just about every close Hillary Clinton ally, asked to describe who is at the top of her organizational chart, gives the same answer: Chelsea....But in terms of 2016, people close to the Clintons say it is difficult to divine whether Chelsea wants her mother to run.

The bottom line is that no one knows whether Hillary will run. I'm sure it's tempting, but I tend to think she won't run.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton repeated her now oft stated intention to step down after President Obama's first term:

"I think I have made it clear that I will certainly stay on until the President nominates someone and that transition can occur," Clinton said at a "town hall" forum with State Department employees Thursday morning. "But I think after 20 years—and it will be 20 years—of being on the high wire of American politics and all of the challenges that come with that, it would be probably a good idea to just find out how tired I am."

But what comes next? Previously, Secretary Clinton has said she would not run again for President, the only plausible political office she would seek. This time she said:

I don't want to think about what might come next, because I don't want me or any of us to divert our attention," Clinton continued, adding that she plans to "work as hard as I can to the last minute I have the honor of being Secretary ... to support all of you.

My view is clear - the Democratic Party needs her to run in 2016. After 8 years of a Democratic Administration, it will be tough for the Dems to hold the White House. Hillary is the candidate who can do it (for a variety of reasons, including the distance she has from Obama due to her 2008 run.) I hope she runs and I think she runs. And wins.

Speaking for me only

Not only did Hillary Clinton rule out a presidential and vice-presidential bid today, she also said she wouldn't accept a position as Secretary of Defense. More significantly, she said she's not staying in her current position as Secretary of State in 2012.

Clinton, visiting Cairo, was asked whether she would stay on in a second Obama term. She also was asked if she would like the jobs of president, vice president or defense secretary. She offered single word responses to each: "No."

I wonder if she already has an offer so good she can't refuse it in the private sector.

Post stolen from Melissa McEwan, the Secretary of State speaking at the Female Heads of State And Foreign Ministers Luncheon:

As many of you know, I have advocated for many years that women are the key to progress and prosperity around the world. I believe that. I know that many of you do as well. And the evidence increasingly supports that assertion. We know that investments in women yield very big dividends, and we want women to be given the tools so that they can make the most out of their own lives – run for office to be president or prime minister, work your way up to be appointed to a position of foreign minister, so many opportunities, because we know there is so much talent.

But what I have concluded over the years is that talent is universal, but opportunity is not. And in many places, opportunity is still out of reach for women, no matter how smart they are, how hard they work, how much encouragement they might be given even by their own families, that it is still a very difficult task.

Read the whole thing. What strikes me about Secretary of State Clinton's speech is not that she is speaking about women, but that the statement is true for all manner of people. It is a recurring theme in my writing -- the world is not fair and those of us lucky enough to have had opportunities in our life should understand how much the luck of the draw has put us in a position to achieve whatever successes we have in our lives.

Speaking for me only

Hillary fell and broke her elbow and will have surgery next week. Let's send some good thoughts her way.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is making another effort to solicit contributions to pay off her campaign debt. This time, contributing will give you a chance at one of three prizes:

• A day with Bill Clinton in New York
• Attending the American Idol Finale
• A tour of D.C. including some time with James Carville and Paul Begala

I'm not sure number 3 qualifies as a prize, but the first two are pretty good.

Personally, I think a better prize would be attending the American Idol finale with Hillary. That would be something to talk about (of course, I've already spent an afternoon with Bill Clinton in New York, so easy for me to say.)

Go on over to HillaryClinton.com, give Hillary a few bucks and make your choice.

During her tour of Indonesia yesterday, Hillary Clinton told the Indonesians why she accepted the Secretary of State's job:

It was not anything I had any reason to expect or had even thought about,” Mrs. Clinton said of President Obama’s offer to her to be the nation’s chief diplomat. “I had to make a hard decision.”

Mrs. Clinton said she put aside the disappointment of the election to take Mr. Obama’s job offer because, she said, “We have so many of the same views of what we should do in the world.”

Asked who her favorite musical groups are, she quickly answered the Beatles and the Rolling Stones. I know another of her favorite groups is Jon Bon Jovi. I'm sure it was a great trip, and had I known in advance where she was headed, I would have sent her a message asking her to make one more stop on her trip.[More...]

Hillary Clinton went to her new office today and met with State Department employees. She received a warm welcome.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton received a rousing welcome this morning when she arrived at Foggy Bottom for the first time, as cheering foreign service and civil service employee packed every inch of the C Street lobby, including the balcony overlooking the flags of foreign nations.

TPM's video here shows the throngs who assembled to greet her. President Obama and VP Biden will visit there this afternoon. [More...]

Sen. Hillary Clinton turned 61 today. She spent the day in Chicago.

She attended a fundraiser brunch for Sen. Barack Obama and an AIPAC conference and then visited with friends.