The situation is so bad that yesterday the U.S. pulled all military personnel, including special forces, from Yemen.
The fight against the advance of the northern Houthi rebels into other areas in Yemen is being led by Sunni tribal militias. These Sunni tribal militias are now competing with both AQAP and ISIS for young jihadi recruits. ISIS is using the opportunity to denigrate AQAP and make gains among potential local recruits.
A local jihadi who has close links to Ansar al-Sharia (an AQAP local franchise) was open in his criticism of al-Qaida.
“Al-Qaida failed in protecting the Sunnis in Yemen. Where are they? Why are they allowing Houthis to advance?” he asked. “The attack-and-run methods had failed, we need to establish a state, like in Iraq and Syria to have land and borders so we can defend it.”
Some local tribal fighters echo those anti-AQAP sentiments. One young tribal fighter who studied abroad says that when he returned, he hoped the tribal system would be replaced by a modern state. But, he says, the revolution failed and since there is no modern state, he sees the tribes as the best leadership alternative. So now he's fighting the Houthis.
But he said his biggest enemies were not the rebels from the north but the radicals in his own midst, particularly AQAP.
“I can’t make a deal with AQ because they have no brains. I wish the Houthi would get into politics. If they come here as the elected authority no one can say anything. But if they come as a militia of course we will fight.”
...“The best thing the Houthis did was to bring us together
The tribes have a different perspective than soldiers.
“There is a big difference between the tribesman and the soldier. The tribesman will never hand over his weapons: if he surrenders he shames not only himself but his whole tribe and loses his honour. They would prefer to die a hundred times. I know those men around me will never leave – they are my cousins, we are connected by blood and honour.”
The Government used to rely on the southern Sunni tribes as a sort of auxiliary military, providing it with weapons. Now, that's backfired.
“Because of the blood feuds and tribal wars we train our children to use weapons even before they go to school,” said [a tribal leader called] the Cat. He laughed and nodded towards the dunes. “Now my men are training on tanks we captured from the army last month.”
So Yemen is falling apart, but it's not a case of ISIS vs. al Qaida, but tribe vs. tribe.
Understanding Houthi motives is complicated by the fact they have been supported by Iran, largely as a way of annoying Tehran’s regional rivals and Yemen’s larger neighbour, Saudi Arabia. But experts argue the conflict is fundamentally a political and tribal one rather than sectarian – in a country which has no tradition of Sunni-Shia animosity.
Between blood feuds, tribal wars and terrorists, Yemen is a mess. Factor in Iran, which is backing the Houthis, and Saudi Arabia, which doesn't want Iran to succeed, and it gets worse. I'm glad the U.S. left. The Yemenis and those living in other countries in the region need to figure this out for themselves. If only we had the same sense to stay out of Iraq and Afghanistan.
