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Iowa Caucus Coverage and Results

Update: I'm done for the night. Congratulations, Hillary. These numbers are from the Iowa Democratic Party's caucus site. 1632 of 1683 precincts reporting. (Results include Tele-Caucus and the Satellite Caucus.)

Here's the County map showing winners at midnight, Iowa time. Looks to me like Hillary won a lot more counties.

At 538: David Wasserman writes at 10:52 PM:

Reality check: A tie in Iowa is actually a win for Clinton. According to our targets at the Cook Political Report, Bernie Sanders would have needed to win twice as many delegates as Clinton in Iowa to be "on track" for the nomination. He's nowhere near that tonight.

Update: Hillary is at 49.9%.

Update: Bernie changes his mind again. Now Bernie's flying off to New Hampshire after all tonight. He's not going to demand an actual vote total, but claim a "moral victory." Translation: He didn't win. Spin: It's a tie. Reality: A tie is if they each get 49.75%. If either gets more, he or she wins Iowa. (With O'Malley getting .5%, that leaves 99.5%.) [More...]

Update: 94% of vote in. Hillary is ahead 50.2% to Sanders' 49.3%. (She's up from a few minutes ago.) O'Malley got .5%.

I think Hillary Clinton did better than Sanders tonight. Why? He didn't knock her out of the race. There was no revolution. There was no huge voting surge by 1st time caucus voters for Bernie. Hillary turned out her voters. She's still the presumptive nominee.

Sanders is staying in Des Moines tonight -- he wants to see the vote results for Polk County. He had planned on a quickie moral victory speech and taking off for New Hampshire.

I won't be listening to Bernie's speech -- or starting a thread about it. I will start a thread for Hillary's speech.

Memo to clueless CNN pundit in the green dress: "Who cares most about people like me" is not a burning question. We are all unique. Other than leftovers from the "me generation", most voters want a President who is best for the country, not for them individually. "People like Me" is a nothing more than a bunch of malcontents who likely won't show up to vote in November.

Update: 90% of Democratic vote in, Hillary is still at 49.8 to Sanders 49.5. These aren't actual votes, these are delegate counts. Wolf Blitzer says Democrats don't release vote totals. So this whole night has been a waste of time?

Update: 84% of Dem vote in, Hillary at 50.0%. Can Bernie catch her? I predict he won't. Shame on CNN for featuring a Sanders shill disguised as an analyst. MUTE button.

CNN calls Iowa for Ted Cruz. He got 28% of the Republican vote -- how is that a huge win over Trump who got 24%? He didn't get a majority of Iowa Republican voters, he got less than 1/3 of them. Trump beat evangelical Rubio in Iowa -- that's pretty good for Trump. Rubio is claiming victory now. People told him his boobs are too high? (Surely I mis-heard him.)( Added: I mis-heard him. Someone else reported he said people said his "boots" were too high. )

Out to lunch: Rubio says he'll be the eventual nominee. He says Hillary is disqualified. He lies his as^ off and claims Hillary is a liar? He says all praise is due to you know who. Who listens to this crap? I'm turning it off.

Update: More than 90% of Republican precincts in. Cruz takes it with 28%. Trump is only 1% ahead of Rubio. I don't think that's so surprising. Iowa Republicans are overwhelmingly evangelical. Iowa is no national bell-weather. Huckabee won Iowa overwhelmingly in 2008 -- 34.8 % to Romney's 25.2%. Iowa is not the United States, it's one of 50 states.

Huckabee just suspended his campaign.

In 2008, there were 227,000 Democratic caucus attendees. In 2004, their turnout was about 125,000 caucus goers.

Update: 76% in, Hillary at 50%, Bernie at 49%. Entrance polls: 88% of the voters who thought experience matters, went for Hillary. Benie got the voters who want a candidate who looks out for people like them.

CNN pundit: Bernie can claim victory if he loses. No, pundit, he can't. Get another job.

Update: Hell is finally freezing over. Martin O'Malley will be suspending his campaign within the next hour. He didn't win a single caucus. At the 2008 caucus I attended, Obama's delegates bought Biden's delegates a box of chocolates to win them over. It didn't work. Biden held firm until the third round. Then his supporters went to Obama. And he became Vice President.

Blast from the past: The difference between caucuses and primaries. Update: MUTE CNN. Their pundits are the worst. Especially the two women.

CNN reports Sanders is going to declare victory whether he wins or loses. He will call for revolution. Message to Bernie: You are no revolutionary. At 74, you are the oldest person to ever run for President. Sorry, I don't want a Model T Ford for President.

60 % of the vote is in. Hillary is at 52%. She's winning the counties that John Edwards won in 2008. I'm ready to call Iowa for Hillary. Hillary is at 54% in Polk County. I don't see the nail-biter here.

Cruz is doing well in some non-evangelical counties that Mitt Romney did well in in 2008. Rubio is doing better than expected. Trump is holding his own. New voter turnout seems to be higher for Republicans than Democrats. Cruz is ahead 29%, Trump is at 25%, Rubio is at 21%, and Carson is at 10%.

Obama is really not that relevant here. He won the counties in 2008 with the most diverse populations -- those with thousands of non-white voters. The fact that Sanders is not winning every single one of these counties says something. Either Obama's support is transferring to Hillary, or Bernie is viewed as too liberal, or the youth vote isn't turning out as expected, or Sanders is not getting the same level of non-white votes that Obama got. Take your pick.

Update: Channel change. CNN puts its clueless pundit back in the front spot.

Did Donald Trump just go down an escalator?

Only 7% of Republican caucus sites reporting. Trump is a point behind Cruz.

Hillary seems to be maintaining her 53% lead at most of the caucuses.

Bernie is in his hotel room. He says its too early and we'll know more in an hour or so. Bernie then gives a speech about the top 1% and campaign finance. What a broken record. [More...]

Trump just took a dive in one caucus. CNN says it is not "necessarily determinative" of "Polk County." But he says The announcer just said "Johnson county, excuse me, Polk County." 25% of Democratic caucuses in, Hillary at 53%.

Update: CNN is redeeming itself by bringing in John King to crunch the numbers and backpedaling its pundits. Hillary just won a caucus with 57% of the vote.

CNN's reporters don't name which caucus they are at. Is that on purpose? How can anyone draw any conclusion without knowing where the caucus is?

Update: Cruz now ahead by 45 votes with 1245 votes. Hillary has 52%. The CNN female announcer is absolutely fawning over Trump. With 600 votes in, she calls his performance "mind-blowing." Seriously? Get a grip.

Update: First actual Republicans results: Ted Cruz barely ahead of Trump. On Democrats: Hillary 52 %, Sanders 46%. Two minutes later: Trump is barely ahead of Cruz -- he has 305 votes. Is this even worth reporting?

CNN numbers cruncher says the evangelical vote may be splitting among Cruz, Rubio and Carson. The non-evangelicals are strong for Trump. [More...]

O'Malley is probably not going to be viable. So where will his supporters go? Another caucus in Coralville is going for Hillary.

The media says turnout is heavy. There are media reports that there are more first time goers among Republicans than Democrats. Trump is speaking at a caucus in West Des Moines. [More...]

CNN gives results for caucus attendees who arrived early and says they may not mean anything. So why report them? It says Hillary is at 50% in its "entrance polls" of "early attendees."

Channel Change: Good-bye, CNN. Get some analysts or give up your "news" moniker. No one is interested in what your lame, biased pundits have to say.

Their "news guy" live at a caucus just repeated the same points he made 15 minutes ago. [More...]

The caucus I attended in 2008 was in the auditorium at the Roosevelt High School in Des Moines.

There's a huge difference between pundits and analysts. As a former TV pundit for 12 years, I know the difference. CNN just blows the line between them.

I'd rather watch the Bachelor than cable news coverage. But instead, I think I'll stick to online news, actual results and actual attendance figures.

< Iowa Still Up for Grabs? | Trump's Iowa Speech: Iowa We Love You >
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  • Display: Sort:
    Glad that you're here with us (5.00 / 2) (#2)
    by Towanda on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 07:43:07 PM EST
    and hope that you got a new mouse, anyway, to post a new thread for tonight.  Thanks.

    thanks, my mouse (5.00 / 2) (#153)
    by Jeralyn on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 10:53:35 PM EST
    started working tonight on its own. I have no idea what happened. But I'm glad too.

    Parent
    Annnnnnddd they're off! (5.00 / 2) (#9)
    by kdog on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 07:55:59 PM EST
    In the Hawkeye Stakes....Establishment Hil up by a neck over Let it Bern out at the first turn.

    And in the 2,000 Claimer over at the podunk track...Trump Chapter Eleven battles Canadian Cruise nose to nose, with Elephant Ruby a distant third.

    Oh no racing fans... (none / 0) (#17)
    by kdog on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 08:20:42 PM EST
    Poor Marty has pulled up lame in the Stakes....statistical zero on MSNBC. Ouch.

    Parent
    Watching this dem caucus process (5.00 / 1) (#27)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 08:35:49 PM EST
    It looks excruciating.  I can understand why people don't do it.  WTF.

    just let people vote fer god sakes

    We moved on to doing taxes (none / 0) (#30)
    by jbindc on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 08:37:43 PM EST
    Seriously (none / 0) (#31)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 08:39:36 PM EST
    I'm not sure I wouldn't smack some little sh!t all up in my face.


    Parent
    Don't worry... (none / 0) (#66)
    by kdog on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:24:47 PM EST
    Nancy be damned if she let Bernie raise them taxes!

    Parent
    O'Malley expected to suspend campaign (5.00 / 1) (#43)
    by ruffian on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:01:32 PM EST
    According to MSNBC

    Ooo (none / 0) (#47)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:02:24 PM EST
    20 seconds

    Parent
    Sadly (none / 0) (#48)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:02:46 PM EST
    not unexpected.

    Parent
    Saying (5.00 / 1) (#50)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:04:12 PM EST
    you're a winner when you lose and calling for a revolution. This is giving me a headache and a flashback to Moon over Parador.

    It's true though... (none / 0) (#62)
    by kdog on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:21:41 PM EST
    could we even imagine Kuchinich beating Kerry in Iowa 2004?

    There's something happening...

    Parent

    There (none / 0) (#69)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:25:36 PM EST
    were more candidates running in 2004. So not really comparable.

    And Bernie losing in 2/3 of the counties I'm not sure that means a whole lot.

    Parent

    Hillary is spinning... (2.00 / 1) (#176)
    by thomas rogan on Tue Feb 02, 2016 at 12:13:33 PM EST
    Hillary had more boots on the ground.  The caucuses showed that she is such a tarnished candidate with so much baggage that she could use these boots to only tie a socialist who started with nothing.  The superdelegates can vote for whomever they want--they aren't locked to her.
    Elizabeth Warren is a progressive woman, combining the best of Hillary and Bernie.  At some point the superdelegates will push her to enter.  Especially if the Republicans have the sense to pick someone who is not ridiculous or with baggage--i.e. Rubio.
    Hillary's much vaunted experience consists mainly of her 1994 insurance proposal, drafted in a vacuum and unable to pass a democratic congress, and her four years at State when the mideast went to pot and she did not know enough (charitable interpretation)to not use her own private email server.  What good has she actually done besides put in time?

    You should save this comment (5.00 / 2) (#179)
    by CoralGables on Tue Feb 02, 2016 at 01:25:48 PM EST
    So you can read it in a few months to see how badly you see the future.

    Parent
    Rubio, (none / 0) (#192)
    by KeysDan on Wed Feb 03, 2016 at 03:38:49 PM EST
    no baggage?

    Parent
    A low-information voter (none / 0) (#193)
    by Towanda on Thu Feb 04, 2016 at 07:22:14 PM EST
    I see, despite how easy it is to know all that Clinton accomplished before 1993.  So, you don't want to know.  You can't get lower than that.

    Parent
    Numbers seem pretty youuug (none / 0) (#1)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 07:42:09 PM EST
    MSNBC talked to a very busy lady who said they were expecting 200 and there was more than twice that.  So many people in line they couldn't close the door but said no more could get in line.


    Which side (none / 0) (#4)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 07:44:18 PM EST
    was that? D or R?

    Parent
    It was a republican site (none / 0) (#5)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 07:45:15 PM EST
    Yeah (none / 0) (#6)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 07:45:58 PM EST
    the R side seems to really be going crazy with people.

    Parent
    Nate Silver (none / 0) (#3)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 07:43:35 PM EST
    says Bernie's support seems to be confined to "very liberal" voters who according to entrance polls are 29%.

    The numbers we are seeng (none / 0) (#7)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 07:53:26 PM EST
    Have to be the small rural areas.  On the R side I mean.  Given that I think it's surprising that the lead would be popping back and forth.   I would expect the rural areas to be more Cruz land.

    With the turnout I don't think it's going to be an early night.   On either side.  

    Des Moines Register has updating (none / 0) (#8)
    by Towanda on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 07:55:57 PM EST
    tally on front page (online, just past first screen as you scroll down).  But if you try to click on other pages, beware; the server cannot keep up.

    Nate Silver (none / 0) (#10)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 08:00:17 PM EST
    says that Hillary is leading in considerably more counties. Not sure how that translates though.

    It translates to more delegates (5.00 / 1) (#11)
    by CoralGables on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 08:02:33 PM EST
    than the vote count might warrant.

    Parent
    Yeah (none / 0) (#12)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 08:11:10 PM EST
    so it seems. She could get 48% of the votes and 60% of the delegates.

    Parent
    With 99 counties in play (none / 0) (#22)
    by CoralGables on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 08:27:26 PM EST
    Clinton currently leads in 59 counties. Sanders leading in 34.

    Parent
    Does Trump implode.... (none / 0) (#13)
    by kdog on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 08:15:19 PM EST
    if he loses? I could totally see him losing his sh#t and calling Iowa a dump full of losers, and how he's gonna build a wall around it and get oculus and MileHi to pay for it.

    Now THAT would be a reality show! (none / 0) (#14)
    by jbindc on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 08:15:40 PM EST
    I'd pay money to see that, and I'd donate (none / 0) (#15)
    by Anne on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 08:19:18 PM EST
    it to a charity that would really make Trump see red!

    Parent
    Get a GoFundMe site ready? (none / 0) (#16)
    by Towanda on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 08:19:37 PM EST
    Oculus and MileHi, if Trump sends a bill, pls advise.

    Parent
    If you say Trump loses by finishing 2nd (none / 0) (#18)
    by CoralGables on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 08:21:41 PM EST
    What does it say for Bush finishing with 2%.

    Parent
    You say 'there goes $15 million' (5.00 / 1) (#34)
    by ruffian on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 08:48:12 PM EST
    My pity... (none / 0) (#21)
    by kdog on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 08:26:30 PM EST
    is pretty busy with O'Malley right now.

    Bush has plenty of company in the (not so) few, the shameless, the GOP also-rans.

    Hey I forgot Sweater Vest was running! Didn't Santorum win this thing once?

    Parent

    Yes and no, as that's when we learned (none / 0) (#23)
    by Towanda on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 08:28:55 PM EST
    that tonight's results can change two weeks from now.  Tonight's tally is only a "preliminary" count.

    Parent
    O'Malley voters will swing one county (none / 0) (#24)
    by CoralGables on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 08:29:15 PM EST
    Monroe County is in the midst of vote swapping right now with O'Malley voters to decide the outcome.

    Parent
    Yeah (none / 0) (#25)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 08:29:44 PM EST
    in 2012. Maybe he will be gone after tomorrow. It seems that Carson is going to be gone maybe with some others. More will probably be gone after NH.

    Parent
    I'm not sure (none / 0) (#19)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 08:22:41 PM EST
    if this is climatic or anti climatic since all we have been hearing about is Iowa forever it seems.

    For some reason, I keep remembering (none / 0) (#20)
    by Towanda on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 08:25:27 PM EST
    TL live-blogging of the Guam primary.

    I recall it as more exciting than this.

    Parent

    you are right (none / 0) (#41)
    by Jeralyn on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 08:57:46 PM EST
    Here it is, both BTD and I updated -- it was exciting.

    Parent
    What fun -- throwback Guam primary! (5.00 / 3) (#46)
    by Towanda on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:02:06 PM EST
    Thanks; this may get me through the night. . . .

    Parent
    31% (none / 0) (#26)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 08:33:49 PM EST
    reporting and Cruz is still leading on the GOP side.

    I hope he wins (none / 0) (#28)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 08:36:48 PM EST
    I hope I'm wrong.  But I still don't think so.

    Parent
    Marco (none / 0) (#29)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 08:37:41 PM EST
    Is doing better than I expected.

    Parent
    Well (none / 0) (#32)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 08:42:21 PM EST
    if the evangelicals came out in force I'm guessing the majority of them went for Cruz considering how much better Cruz is doing than what the polls said.

    Parent
    It ain't over (none / 0) (#33)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 08:44:01 PM EST
    Till it's over

    Parent
    Yeah (none / 0) (#44)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:01:33 PM EST
    but it still looks like Cruz is going to pull it out.

    Parent
    Now 70% in and Cruz still up by 4% (none / 0) (#37)
    by ruffian on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 08:53:53 PM EST
    Rubio over 20%.

    Rubio beating trump in the Dubuque area where Trump was expected to do better.

    Just hoping to see the smug wiped off Trump's face.

    Parent

    I'm with you. (none / 0) (#39)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 08:56:59 PM EST
    Love to be wrong about the winner.  If I was right it would be over.  I don't want it to be over.

    Parent
    Looks like the Cruz organization is (none / 0) (#42)
    by ruffian on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:00:00 PM EST
    pretty impressive, at least here. Their predictions and models seemed to prove out. Gonna be some geek high fives at that HQ.

    Parent
    170,000 (none / 0) (#35)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 08:50:49 PM EST
    Republicans

    Rubio doing well (none / 0) (#36)
    by MKS on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 08:53:25 PM EST
    Are the Republicans going to get rational?

    God I hope not (none / 0) (#38)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 08:55:29 PM EST
    Marco does appear to be doing well at Donalds expense.

    Parent
    'On the fence' people going for Rubio (none / 0) (#54)
    by ruffian on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:11:17 PM EST
    He is way ahead in the 'can win in November' numbers.

    Parent
    The media (none / 0) (#55)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:14:03 PM EST
    Is going to be a Marcofest.   He is the comeback kid.

    Winning by being third.

    Parent

    Some Rubio Dude... (none / 0) (#56)
    by kdog on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:14:11 PM EST
    was just on sayin if you hate Ted Cruz you better get with us.

    How's that for a campaign slogan...

    RUBIO 2016
    not Ted Cruz

    Parent

    Rubio (none / 0) (#57)
    by jbindc on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:15:15 PM EST
    "Not as bad as the other guy"

    Parent
    Brian Williams isnt even trying to look (none / 0) (#40)
    by ruffian on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 08:57:18 PM EST
    interested when other people talk. Ha!

    O'Malley suspending (none / 0) (#45)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:01:52 PM EST


    And Huckabee (none / 0) (#86)
    by Peter G on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:36:24 PM EST
    "suspending" (i.e., ending) is R-side campaign.

    Parent
    If a tree falls in the forest (none / 0) (#89)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:37:33 PM EST
    And nobody cares.......

    Parent
    ... can we still use the lumber? (none / 0) (#157)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 11:36:20 PM EST
    And goodbye Santorum (none / 0) (#191)
    by Peter G on Wed Feb 03, 2016 at 03:30:00 PM EST
    I thought he had dropped out months ago. I hope he stays in Virginia and doesn't come back to PA.

    Parent
    Wow...Rubio's nipping at The Donald's (none / 0) (#49)
    by Anne on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:03:56 PM EST
    heels...can't decide how I feel about what that means.

    And O'Malley's suspending his campaign - no shock there.  

    Trump as loser...what will he do with that? (none / 0) (#51)
    by Anne on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:06:56 PM EST
    Not that he couldn't still pull it out, but it's not looking like he will.

    But didn't we know Cruz was going to do well in this very evangelical state?

    Still have no idea why anyone votes Republican.

    he'll be fine (none / 0) (#58)
    by Jeralyn on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:15:43 PM EST
    He's been realistic about Iowa. Iowa doesn't mean much in the long run. Didn't do much for Huckabee in 2008 even though he won.

    Iowa Republicans are overwhelming evangelical. The rest of the country, not as much.

    Parent

    They are right tho (none / 0) (#60)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:20:51 PM EST
    That it hurts a bit more because of expectations since the DMR poll.

    But I agree.  A speedbump.  Marco could easily become more of a problem than Ted.

    Parent

    Low self esteem? (none / 0) (#61)
    by jbindc on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:20:52 PM EST
    Ha ha! Maybe... (none / 0) (#65)
    by Anne on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:24:40 PM EST
    Looks like Mr. Haney is projected winner...am wondering if Rubio could overtake Trump.

    That would sting, I think...

    Parent

    If Cruz wins (none / 0) (#52)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:07:33 PM EST
    How long to a lawsuit on his eligibility from Donald?

    I don't (none / 0) (#53)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:11:01 PM EST
    think Donald will have to do it. I think there are lawsuits already in the works.

    Parent
    Did you hear the MSNBC panel? (none / 0) (#59)
    by ruffian on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:16:47 PM EST
    They all agreed it is a serious question. It just seems amazing to me someone as obviously smart as Cruz is would run if it were really a question. Very strange.

    Parent
    Read Peters comments on this (none / 0) (#63)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:22:13 PM EST
    Strange as it sounds it is an actual question.  

    Called for TED!!!!!

    Parent

    Yes, I did a couple,of weeks ago- I take him more (none / 0) (#68)
    by ruffian on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:25:36 PM EST
    Seriously than these tv people. Really interesting.

    Parent
    Ugh, the commentary highlights how negative (none / 0) (#64)
    by ruffian on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:23:44 PM EST
    Trumps campaign has been. It is all he's got. The analysis is basically oh, Trump stopped attacking Rubio and started attacking Cruz, now he has to attack Rubio again, etc, etc.....

    Yuck, how can you vote for someone like that?

    Rubio better have... (none / 0) (#79)
    by kdog on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:32:10 PM EST
    his water bottle ready...Trump gonna cock the hammer like Cypress Hill.

    Parent
    Totally (none / 0) (#83)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:33:59 PM EST
    And a HAZMAT suit

    Parent
    He's on now... (none / 0) (#92)
    by kdog on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:38:11 PM EST
    brought out the family...human shields? Trump don't care!

    Parent
    ..when AHM the nominee...... (none / 0) (#95)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:40:56 PM EST
    Licking the lips...pass the water! (none / 0) (#97)
    by ruffian on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:41:23 PM EST
    Hear that sound? (none / 0) (#67)
    by Robot Porter on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:25:17 PM EST
    It's the air going out of the Trump balloon.

    Although we are expecting a slow collapse, stand well back. An explosive deflation is possible.

    ;)

    It ain't gonna be pretty (5.00 / 1) (#72)
    by ruffian on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:28:11 PM EST
    Ted for the Win! (none / 0) (#70)
    by jbindc on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:27:05 PM EST


    Ted declared the weiner (none / 0) (#71)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:27:47 PM EST
    Hillary declaring herself a winner?

    Ok then.

    She (none / 0) (#75)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:30:38 PM EST
    won 2/3 of the counties it seems.

    Parent
    She'll probably win it, but, (5.00 / 1) (#135)
    by NYShooter on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 10:21:33 PM EST
    I'm sorry, I gotta say it, how stupid, how tone deaf is it for the Clinton Team to declare themselves the winner with the spread less than one half point, and, 18% of votes still outstanding?

    Parent
    Not any more stupid than Sanders (5.00 / 1) (#142)
    by caseyOR on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 10:28:34 PM EST
    declaring that if he loses it is still a victory.

    Parent
    When you consider how far back he was (5.00 / 2) (#167)
    by Anne on Tue Feb 02, 2016 at 07:31:31 AM EST
    when all of this began, and that no one gave him a snowball's chance in hell of getting this close, I think losing by less than 1% is very much a victory.  

    I could turn this around and ask you what it says that someone who was seen as having an insurmountable lead months ago was barely able to squeak out a win, but you'd probably deem me "stupid" for doing so.

    Good to see how gracious the Clinton supporters are going to be going forward; I'm sure when she wins the nomination, the Sanders supporters will feel ever so welcome.


    Parent

    Well, you know (none / 0) (#168)
    by jbindc on Tue Feb 02, 2016 at 07:49:25 AM EST
    Lack of class goes both ways.

    Good to see what gracious losers those supporters are - those young, and smarter-than-everyone-else-because-how-could-you-support-that-woman crowd.

    Parent

    They (none / 0) (#169)
    by Ga6thDem on Tue Feb 02, 2016 at 07:57:12 AM EST
    sound just like Republicans.

    Parent
    That is unfair, Anne. (none / 0) (#175)
    by caseyOR on Tue Feb 02, 2016 at 12:12:55 PM EST
    I was in no way ungracious to Bernie or his supporters. I was responding to what I thought was an unfair shot at Clinton by a TL commenter. That is all it was.

    If you have read my comments you know perfectly well that I will throw my support to whichever of these two Democrats wins the nomination, and I will do so without reservation.

    As to Clinton's "insurmountable lead" well, it would be incredibly naive for one to think that her lead would not diminish, and Sanders numbers rise, as more voters became familiar with Sanders. It is easy to lead in the polls when you are the only candidate with whom most voters are familiar. And foolish to think you will maintain that fantastic lead.

    The Clinton campaign said last summer that this would be a hard fought primary race. Whatever one might think of Hillary Clinton, she is not an idiot.

    Parent

    Clinton is not. (5.00 / 1) (#181)
    by Mr Natural on Tue Feb 02, 2016 at 06:24:17 PM EST
    Lots of her supporters will be.

    Parent
    Since they've already credited her with a majority (5.00 / 1) (#143)
    by CoralGables on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 10:30:58 PM EST
    of the Iowa delegates for the Dem convention into the Clinton column, that's a win.

    Parent
    You must know by now (5.00 / 1) (#146)
    by Towanda on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 10:40:55 PM EST
    that the last 10 percent is predictable, based on the percentages in those last, urban precincts.

    Plus, waiting any longer loses a lot of tv audience -- in Iowa and a lot of the country.  So, it is good for the Dems in the GE to not (do the usual stoopid and) miss the opportunity for tv time.  

    And Dems winning the GE is the goal.  

    Parent

    This was my thinking (5.00 / 1) (#151)
    by vicndabx on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 10:51:21 PM EST
    Plus, waiting any longer loses a lot of tv audience -- in Iowa and a lot of the country.  So, it is good for the Dems in the GE to not (do the usual stoopid and) miss the opportunity for tv time.

    Beside, I didn't actually hear "I won"

    Parent

    Yes,of of course it is. (none / 0) (#150)
    by NYShooter on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 10:48:19 PM EST
    I just have a different view of what good, and/or bad imagery is. Kicking Sander's supporters in the teeth at a time when they've just been defeated (albeit, by less than a point) simply, isn't my idea of good strategy.

    Parent
    They've (none / 0) (#139)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 10:26:57 PM EST
    got the same app everybody else does and can read the numbers.

    IMO Tone deaf is losing and calling yourself a winner and screaming for a revolution.

    Parent

    No, I'm sorry (none / 0) (#147)
    by NYShooter on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 10:44:25 PM EST
    When you make up crap about "screaming," reality has lost its meaning.

    Go, and enjoy your love fest in this echo chamber.

    Why not just say, "hey, you know, maybe we were a little too optimistic in our predictions. Maybe we should go back to the drawing boards and rethink this thing?

    No, that would be rational.

    Parent

    Hmm (none / 0) (#149)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 10:47:48 PM EST
    you're testy tonight.

    Parent
    Yeah, you're damn right. (none / 0) (#156)
    by NYShooter on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 11:04:55 PM EST
    I want Hillary to win, and, become our next President. And, I'd like you to show me who was out there calling for her to run before me. Years ago, when I was an executive in a very large, world famous corporation (Bill was still President) every single exec. on "Mahogany Row,  all Republicans, hated her guts.

     So, I sent out for the latest copy of Newsweek, with a gorgeous picture of Hillary on the cover. Then, I had my secretary blow it up, laminate it, frame it, and hang it on the wall right behind my desk. I wanted to make sure everyone who came to see me saw that picture, front and center. And, my career? Nobody said a word. I felt that strongly about it, and, to their credit, nobody challenged me on it.

    Sorry for the spiel, but, we're talking family here, and, if I see something that I feel can only hurt the lady, no one, not a bunch of Senior V.P's, nor commenters on a blog will get me to back off.

    I'm finished for the night.

    Parent

    It was actually right on confident :) (none / 0) (#159)
    by christinep on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 11:54:40 PM EST
    That's life in the fast lane....

    Parent
    Huckabee out (none / 0) (#73)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:29:25 PM EST


    Bye Huck! (none / 0) (#74)
    by ruffian on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:29:26 PM EST


    Can Fiorina be far behind? (none / 0) (#77)
    by Anne on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:30:56 PM EST
    Wouldn't miss her, that's for sure.

    Parent
    Better (none / 0) (#81)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:32:49 PM EST
    And possibly more relevant, Jeb!  3%

    Parent
    Do you watch Colbert? (none / 0) (#84)
    by ruffian on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:34:42 PM EST
    He does a 'hunger games' style tribute to the fallen when candidates drop out. It is really funny. Should be a good week on his show.

    Parent
    Being 74 (none / 0) (#76)
    by lentinel on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:30:39 PM EST
    disqualifies Mr. Sanders from consideration.

    Too bad, Senator Sanders.
    I love your ideas, your energy and your integrity.
    But you're just an old guy. You've passed the cut-off.

    We'll just go for that spring chicken.

    Huh? It is pretty much a dead heat on the Dem side (none / 0) (#80)
    by ruffian on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:32:34 PM EST
    I think that was sarcasm (none / 0) (#82)
    by jbindc on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:33:21 PM EST
    Yeah, I just couldn't figure out against who (none / 0) (#88)
    by ruffian on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:36:50 PM EST
    I was referring to (none / 0) (#107)
    by lentinel on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:47:54 PM EST
    what Jeralyn wrote above:

    CNN reports Sanders is going to declare victory whether he wins or loses. He will call for revolution. Message to Bernie: You are no revolutionary. At 74, you are the oldest person to ever run for President. Sorry, I don't want a Model T Ford for President.

    Oh my.

    Parent

    Benjamin Franklin was 70 years old (5.00 / 2) (#183)
    by Anne on Tue Feb 02, 2016 at 07:34:35 PM EST
    on July 4, 1776.

    Guess he should have just sat out the revolution, huh?

    Maybe he'd pass muster if he had his hair styled and got some custom-made/fitted suits, and figured out what his best color is...

    Parent

    Think this through (none / 0) (#186)
    by CoralGables on Wed Feb 03, 2016 at 07:30:23 AM EST
    and you'll find it to be an incredibly poor analogy. It's closer to what someone in the Bundy clan might say.

    Parent
    Quoting Jeralyn... (none / 0) (#117)
    by lentinel on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:53:25 PM EST
    Re: Senator Sanders:

    At 74, you are the oldest person to ever run for President. Sorry, I don't want a Model T Ford for President.

    That's what I was referencing.

    I don't agree with the sentiment.

    Parent

    I guess being 6 years younger, at 68, (5.00 / 2) (#122)
    by Anne on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:57:03 PM EST
    makes Hillary what - a Crown Victoria?  Or an Edsel?

    The ageism really ticks me off.

    Parent

    lol. It makes her a Model A. (5.00 / 1) (#182)
    by Mr Natural on Tue Feb 02, 2016 at 06:28:25 PM EST
    - which went into production in 1927, immediately after the Model T ceased production.

    Live by the trope, die by the trope.


    Parent

    Ok, I missed that. (5.00 / 2) (#128)
    by ruffian on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:59:43 PM EST
    Having just turned 58, I hope 74 is the new 54.

    Parent
    you can disagree (5.00 / 1) (#161)
    by Jeralyn on Tue Feb 02, 2016 at 01:15:46 AM EST
    that's fine but it's my opinion. And I'm probably older than all of you who are complaining about my comment.

    While I'm younger than Hillary (not 68 yet) I think there is a huge difference in stamina between 68 and 74.

    Sanders is way past his prime. He should write a book or accept a cabinet position. He shouldn't be President, especially with his one issue focus.

     

    Parent

    If he is so (5.00 / 2) (#170)
    by lentinel on Tue Feb 02, 2016 at 09:26:53 AM EST
    past his "prime", how in the world did he manage to come from nowhere to where he is now?

    Personally, I find comments about his age to be no more acceptable than a comment about someones religion, ethnicity, gender or sexual preference.
    It is a sweeping generalization.

    Either you find his agenda compelling, or you do not.

    Either he will be compelling in a debate on the issues with Sect'y Clinton, or he will not.

    And if life expectancy is brought into the discussion, he would be 83 at the end of his second term - and I am pleased to say that I know several people who are even older than that who have more savvy and quicker minds than "youngsters like Rubio and Cruz - who I find to be facile and dumb.

    In my opinion, the fact that O'Malley, a younger man, gained no traction is due in part to the fact that Sanders was much more convincing, intelligent, and compassionate than he was.

    So now it will be between Sanders and Clinton.
    Hopefully it will be on the issues.

    Parent

    He is more than one issue, but if you are (5.00 / 2) (#185)
    by Anne on Tue Feb 02, 2016 at 08:05:39 PM EST
    depending on sound bites and the media to inform you what issues he's speaking to and where he stands, I guess it doesn't surprise me that you think he only has one issue.  Would it be impertinent to say, "go look at his website?"  Because I think if you take a look at it, you might have a better handle on what Sanders is all about.

    There is no question it takes a lot of stamina not just to run for this office, but to function within it, but I don't know that you have near enough information to make the judgment that Sanders is past his prime.

    But if we're going to talk about health and stamina, you might want to refresh your memory about Clinton's health problems. After four years as Secretary of State, she looked like someone had dragged her through gravel backwards - and she's three years older now.

    She'll be 69 in November, which means that if she wins, she'll be 73 at the end of her first term.  Will you consider her too old to run for a second term?  Will she be, at that point, past her prime? And what's the magic expiration date - couldn't she go past her prime while in office?

    Is she only good for one term?  And isn't that a concern for you?

    Parent

    Has Sen. Sanders released any medical (none / 0) (#187)
    by oculus on Wed Feb 03, 2016 at 08:02:58 AM EST
    records yet?  

    Parent
    He released an evaluation by Senate's (none / 0) (#188)
    by oculus on Wed Feb 03, 2016 at 08:13:22 AM EST
    physician. He's a healthy 74-year old male.

    Parent
    Here is Clinton's medical evaluation, (none / 0) (#189)
    by Anne on Wed Feb 03, 2016 at 09:09:53 AM EST
    Speaking of old (none / 0) (#190)
    by CaptHowdy on Wed Feb 03, 2016 at 09:15:24 AM EST
    Jebs "secret weapon" Barb is going to rise from the crypt to help him out n NH.

    Parent
    Ha! Lawrence O'Donnell makes a great point (none / 0) (#78)
    by ruffian on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:31:39 PM EST
    about Trump skipping that last debate. I forgot about that already.

    Chris Matthews: "the buzzards are (none / 0) (#85)
    by Anne on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:35:00 PM EST
    circling for Trump."

    These guys really want him out.

    Gotta say (5.00 / 2) (#87)
    by jbindc on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:36:41 PM EST
    I despise Ted Cruz and everything he stands for, but I am so glad someone beat Trump.

    Parent
    I agree (none / 0) (#93)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:39:40 PM EST
    ITS NOT OVER!!

    That said, enjoy it.  It might be your last chance.

    Parent

    Feel pretty much the same way, jb; (none / 0) (#98)
    by Anne on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:41:52 PM EST
    will be really interesting to both hear Trump's reaction to this, and then to find out what, if anything, happens to the NH poll numbers.

    Watching Rubio, I'm sorry, but he doesn't seem human - he's like a machine; I had to hit the mute button.  And he's not exactly squeaky clean, either.


    Parent

    Even Thought He is a Year... (none / 0) (#171)
    by ScottW714 on Tue Feb 02, 2016 at 09:27:29 AM EST
    ...younger than me, he reminds me of a little boy ventriloquist doll.  He speaks, but it always seems like it not actually coming form him, and while the boyish doll thing is kinda cute, it's clearly not ready to actually do things all on its own.

    Parent
    Aw Mario, such a cute victory grin (none / 0) (#90)
    by ruffian on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:37:37 PM EST


    Marco, whatever (5.00 / 1) (#91)
    by ruffian on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:38:08 PM EST
    "We have a choice (none / 0) (#96)
    by jbindc on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:40:57 PM EST
    between more than two parties..."

    Yes, we have a choice between smart, rational, thoughtful adults who may differ on how to achieve   their similar outlooks, and on the other hand, we have crazy, buffoonish, racist, bigoted, mother f@#4ers.

    Yep, Marco, you're right.  It IS more than a choice between two parties.

    Parent

    Exactly... (none / 0) (#99)
    by kdog on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:42:21 PM EST
    Hillary is disqualified? She's not Canadian! Who does Mario think he is, Ed Hochuli?

    Parent
    Hey! (none / 0) (#102)
    by jbindc on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:44:51 PM EST
    Don't insult Ed Hochuli!  He's just a ref (and a lawyer!)

    Parent
    I would never... (none / 0) (#106)
    by kdog on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:47:48 PM EST
    Ed is jacked up...He's the ref, Marco has no authority to disqualify anybody. I hope Big Ed disqualifies him.

    Parent
    Sounds Like They Need... (5.00 / 1) (#173)
    by ScottW714 on Tue Feb 02, 2016 at 09:32:08 AM EST
    ... to call New York for a correct application of the rules.  
    Calling Dean Blandino...


    Parent
    Ed! (none / 0) (#174)
    by jbindc on Tue Feb 02, 2016 at 09:34:47 AM EST
    And then he had to wreck it by talking (5.00 / 1) (#94)
    by ruffian on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:39:57 PM EST
    He looks like he might actually start (none / 0) (#103)
    by Anne on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:45:04 PM EST
    eating his own face; has no one ever told him about chapstick?

    Parent
    BF just said (none / 0) (#104)
    by jbindc on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:46:36 PM EST
    "Is he still talking?"

    Parent
    Ha- but I must look away from the super cute kids (none / 0) (#109)
    by ruffian on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:49:47 PM EST
    If only Donald's hair could caucus (none / 0) (#111)
    by jbindc on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:50:46 PM EST
    That alone would be worth 5% points.

    Parent
    Watching Rubio... (none / 0) (#100)
    by lentinel on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:43:09 PM EST
    He says to a jubilant band of supporters...
    "They said it couldn't be done!".

    He came in third.

    ....and then.... (5.00 / 3) (#101)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:43:57 PM EST
    I built the log cabin I was born in........

    Parent
    Yes - less than 25% of you want me to be (none / 0) (#105)
    by ruffian on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:47:12 PM EST
    POTUS - a great victory!

    Parent
    538 (none / 0) (#108)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:47:59 PM EST
    says Bernie is not going to be able to catch up due to the districts that are out.

    Donald speaks (none / 0) (#110)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:50:02 PM EST


    What is up (none / 0) (#113)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:51:15 PM EST
    With the raccoon eyes??

    Parent
    He actually sounds like a real human being (none / 0) (#114)
    by jbindc on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:51:53 PM EST
    He did (none / 0) (#120)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:54:22 PM EST
    Not bad.

    Parent
    Ok (none / 0) (#118)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:53:29 PM EST
    Buying a farm might be to much.  Just saying.

    Parent
    Howdy, it's the makeup (none / 0) (#184)
    by fishcamp on Tue Feb 02, 2016 at 07:58:51 PM EST
    you remember the superstars in film who had allergies around their eyes, as well as within.  

    Parent
    And goodbye Iowa, says Melania with relief (none / 0) (#119)
    by ruffian on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:53:56 PM EST
    "NEEEEWWWWW YORK (none / 0) (#121)
    by jbindc on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:55:21 PM EST
    is where I'd rather stay
    I get allergic smelling hay
    I just adore a penthouse view
    Darling, I love you,
    but give me Park Avenue."

    Parent
    Time for something else (none / 0) (#124)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:57:48 PM EST
    I really can't take a victorious Ted.

    LOST!!!!  At last.

    Parent

    Oh yeah, I refuse to watch that (none / 0) (#130)
    by ruffian on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 10:00:45 PM EST
    Victorious Ted. I can only stomach so much.

    Parent
    Kills me that I instantly knew that (none / 0) (#127)
    by Anne on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:59:22 PM EST
    was the Green Acres theme song...maybe I'm too old, too.

    Guess I'll hobble along to the precinct to vote in May and make sure to wear my bib so I don't drool on myself.

    Parent

    Ha! Did you go 'da da da da da - fresh air'! (5.00 / 1) (#132)
    by ruffian on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 10:02:28 PM EST
    Like I did? Yes, time to toddle off to bed.

    Parent
    OMG - I did! (none / 0) (#133)
    by Anne on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 10:04:08 PM EST
    Bed for me, too - I can't watch Mr. Haney and I don't think much is going to change with Hillary/Bernie.

    Parent
    As long as (none / 0) (#131)
    by jbindc on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 10:01:37 PM EST
    Your bib is fashionable.  Don't want to embarrass yourself by being out of style.  :)

    Parent
    nothing wrong with that (none / 0) (#140)
    by Jeralyn on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 10:27:55 PM EST
    I feel the same way. I'd take a NY penthouse over a farm in Iowa any day. I love Park Avenue.  And I hate hay and have allergies.

    Parent
    You're an unapologetic urbanite, Jeralyn. (none / 0) (#164)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Tue Feb 02, 2016 at 05:51:45 AM EST
    I'm very much enjoying life in a small town, if one can call Hilo at 43,000 residents a "small town." But after living in big cities for my entire life, I must say that Hilo has been a most welcome change of pace.

    There's no way I'd ever willingly live in Iowa.

    Parent

    I'm sure Iowa... (5.00 / 3) (#180)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Tue Feb 02, 2016 at 03:03:21 PM EST
    is so very disappointed to know that.

    Parent
    Oh, now Trump defines winning as finishing in the (none / 0) (#112)
    by ruffian on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:51:02 PM EST
    Top 10

    OMG...Trump's reverse racoon eyes... (none / 0) (#115)
    by Anne on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:52:01 PM EST
    he either needs makeup, or to stay out of the tanning booth.

    Yeah, someone spent time in the tanning (none / 0) (#116)
    by ruffian on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:53:07 PM EST
    booth while the kids were out speechifying today.

    Parent
    Such restraint... (none / 0) (#123)
    by kdog on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:57:21 PM EST
    It's gotta be the body double, the real Trump has locked himself in a lavatory with gold fixtures.

    Parent
    I think (none / 0) (#126)
    by lentinel on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:58:48 PM EST
    that Cruz is more dangerous than Donald.

    Parent
    And less of a threat (5.00 / 1) (#129)
    by CaptHowdy on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 10:00:05 PM EST
    Electorally speaking.

    Parent
    Probably... (none / 0) (#134)
    by kdog on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 10:04:13 PM EST
    and at least you get a laugh outta Donald's buffoonery sometimes...Cruz is loathsome through and through.

    Parent
    Exactly (none / 0) (#165)
    by ruffian on Tue Feb 02, 2016 at 06:42:19 AM EST
    Possibly (none / 0) (#162)
    by TrevorBolder on Tue Feb 02, 2016 at 05:31:17 AM EST
    But the coalescing around Rubio should begin
    after New Hampshire,

    Rubio will beat Cruz over the long primary season.

    After NH should be a 3 man race, which helps Donald, if it was Donald against Rubio, he loses, against Cruz, maybe a tossup.

    Think more than ever that Rubio will be the nominee

    Parent

    At 538 (none / 0) (#125)
    by jbindc on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 09:58:29 PM EST
    DAVID WASSERMAN 10:52 PM
    Reality check: A tie in Iowa is actually a win for Clinton. According to our targets at the Cook Political Report, Bernie Sanders would have needed to win twice as many delegates as Clinton in Iowa to be "on track" for the nomination. He's nowhere near that tonight.


    That's a given (none / 0) (#136)
    by CoralGables on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 10:22:22 PM EST
    The chance of Sanders winning three states out of 50 drops dramatically with a loss tonight.

    Parent
    On the other hand... (none / 0) (#138)
    by lentinel on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 10:26:51 PM EST
    I think Sanders did better than Hillary Clinton tonight. Why? She didn't knock him out of the race.

    If you paid (5.00 / 1) (#141)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 10:28:33 PM EST
    attention to the polls she was never going to knock him out tonight. Bernie's problems are going to come in more diverse states seeing as even in Iowa he couldn't expand his base of appeal.

    Parent
    I was (none / 0) (#154)
    by lentinel on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 10:54:44 PM EST
    simply positing an opposite interpretation of the same events.

    At the moment, the race between the two of them is too close to call.

    Them's the facts.

    The rest is speculation.

    Parent

    Clinton was not expected to (5.00 / 1) (#144)
    by caseyOR on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 10:31:04 PM EST
    knock Sanders out of the race. In fact, the expectation has been that she could well lose Iowa and New Hampshire. your attempt at slamming Clinton is not based in fact.

    Parent
    Not slamming (none / 0) (#152)
    by lentinel on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 10:51:43 PM EST
    Clinton.

    It just feels like some game to me to interpret this one way or another.

    They both did well.
    Neither knocked the other out.
    I did not expect otherwise.

    Clinton declaring victory was,I thought, a little premature...

    Parent

    Sanders (none / 0) (#145)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 10:34:22 PM EST
    never was going to knock her out of the race even if he had won. He would have had to have won something like 2/3 of the votes in Iowa to even have a chance at the nomination. Iowa is the 3rd most favorable state for him. 2nd is NH. 1st is Vermont.

    Actually, Jeralyn (none / 0) (#148)
    by jbindc on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 10:46:03 PM EST
    The "people like me" question is a long time standard question in polling and is one of the more reliable indicators of __ (something, I don't remember, and can't understand the statistics about it).  

    But it is a relevant question.

    Just about 100 precincts left to report (none / 0) (#155)
    by CoralGables on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 10:57:40 PM EST
    65% of those are from counties where Clinton currently leads. She could leave Iowa with 57% of the delegates in her pocket while winning 50% of the vote.

    Anybody (none / 0) (#158)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 11:37:18 PM EST
    talking about how wrong Nate Silver was when it came to the GOP or even how off he was on the D Side of things? He must be losing his touch or something.

    Not really sure he was wrong (none / 0) (#160)
    by CoralGables on Mon Feb 01, 2016 at 11:59:43 PM EST
    but earlier this afternoon he wrote a piece on the impossibility of accurately polling a caucus.

    He did ultimately have Clinton winning. He gave Trump less than a 50% chance of winning meaning there was no solid favorite on the GOP side.

    The poll aggregates had Clinton winning. On the GOP side they had it finishing 1) Trump; 2) Cruz; 3) Rubio; 4) Carson; 5) Paul; 6) Bush. They flipped the 1st two and nailed 3-4-5-6. Not exactly terrible.

    Parent

    As of 5:30am CST, ... (none / 0) (#163)
    by Donald from Hawaii on Tue Feb 02, 2016 at 05:37:02 AM EST
    ... 1682 of the 1683 precincts have reported, with only one outstanding. Hillary Clinton maintained her slim margin and has likely won the Iowa Democratic Caucus with 49.9% of the vote. Bernie Sanders received 49.6%.

    Yes, he can't catch her (none / 0) (#166)
    by jbindc on Tue Feb 02, 2016 at 07:13:15 AM EST
    IDP Chair Andy McGuire (none / 0) (#172)
    by lentinel on Tue Feb 02, 2016 at 09:31:31 AM EST
    called the results a "virtual tie."

    Hillary won 699 SDEs.
    Sanders won 695 SDEs.

    Hillary won more than Bernie.

    Now changed to "Clinton won" (none / 0) (#177)
    by Towanda on Tue Feb 02, 2016 at 12:41:48 PM EST
    and fer pity's sake, we've got snow to shovel, so leeeeeeeeave Iowa -- alone or otherwise -- national media.  

    Parent
    I hear (none / 0) (#178)
    by lentinel on Tue Feb 02, 2016 at 01:12:12 PM EST
    that Trump loves Iowa so much he might buy a farm.

    Now that's entertainment!

    Parent