Sure, as I've been saying for a few months, the election is now about turnout. Even so, ABC News boils down the electoral map in such a way that it seems impossible John McCain can win:

If McCain doesn't win Pennsylvania's 21 electoral votes, he would have to run the table and win all eight of the competitive states that were held by President Bush in 2004, including Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, and Nevada.

...If you take all four of these states that will be decided relatively early on Election Night next Tuesday -- Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio, and Florida -- McCain has to win three out of four of those states to even have a chance of getting to 270 electoral votes.

It gets worse for McCain: Even Montana is no longer a sure thing and McCain has begun advertising there this week. [More...]

One week from tomorrow, Michelle Obama may be the First Lady-Elect of the United States. Here she is on the Tonight Show this evening with Jay Leno. (Part 2 is here.) She'll be in Colorado Springs tomorrow afternoon for an early voting rally.

Early voting in Colorado may not be meeting Democrats' expectations. Don't get complacent and don't trust the polls. Mail your ballot in tomorrow if you havent' already. We need every vote. [More...]

Via Sentencing Law and Policy where law prof Doug Berman provides his own thoughts, Sen. John McCain has an op-ed today in the National Law Journal outlining his views of criminal justice and the role of judges.

Terrorists are not the only threat to public safety. Lax enforcement policies, judges who legislate from the bench and lack of support for law enforcement personnel all continue to force our innocent citizens behind the barred windows of their homes and allow criminals to roam free.

And now drugs are bringing waves of crime and organized gang activity to rural areas thought to be nearly immune from such problems. The federal government must both support state and local law enforcement and effectively enforce federal laws designed to root out violent crime, organized gangs and other interstate criminal activity.

[More...]

Update (TChris): Will President Bush pardon Senator Stevens? Will that decision depend upon whether Stevens is reelected?

Mr. Stevens is certain to appeal the conviction, and his supporters are also likely to explore the possibility of obtaining a pardon from a fellow Republican, President George W. Bush, before Mr. Bush leaves office in January.

original post:

Ted Stevens guilty:

Sen. Ted Stevens was found guilty on all counts at his corruption trial Monday. Stevens was charged with lying on Senate financial forms about $250,000 in home renovations and other gifts he received from an oil contractor.

Let's suppose for a moment John McCain was actually a serious person whose policy pronouncements merited attention. Today he said:

“The difference is that he thinks taxes have been too low, and I think that spending has been too high.” . . . “This election comes down to how you want your hard-earned money spent,” Mr. McCain said. Only Republicans, he said, favor policies that can “restore confidence and create economic growth.”

(Emphasis supplied.) Those are two pretty remarkable statements. First, on spending, what would McCain cut? Even if he eliminated all earmarks, that only amounts to 18 billion dollars per year (assuming it is all bad anyway), less than we spend in two months in Iraq. So McCain is clowning on this issue. He does not believe a word of it. As for the second statement, it is nice that McCain admits he is for more of the same Republican rule we have seen for 8 years, but surely he does not think that will "restore confidence" does he?

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

SUSA's Virginia poll gives us a perfect opportunity to do the type of demographic analysis we used to good effect during the primaries.

SUSA has Obama winning Virginia by 9 points. In the poll, Obama leads among A-As (18% of the electorate) by 86-13 and trails among whites (74% of the electorate) 42-53. The other 8% of the electorate is divided among Latinos (4% of the electorate) and Other (4%.) Compare this potential result with the 2004 race in Virginia -- Kerry won A-As by 87-12 and they were 21% of the Virginia electorate. SUSA predicts Obama will do worse with A-As than Kerry did and turn out in lesser numbers. Not happening. As in the primaries, SUSA simply does not poll A-As well. Obama will win 95% of the A-A vote in Virginia and it may reach 25% of the vote. Thus, even if SUSA is overreporting Obama's white support, and that seems unlikely as it never did so during the primaries, Obama seems a shoo-in in Virginia. More . . .

One thing we probably should have learned from this campaign season is the importance of demographics in gauging this political campaign. I have not engaged in much poll analysis because, frankly, I do not think the Presidential election is in doubt. But Salon runs a silly and truly useless pseudo analysis from a GOP operative trying to convince (perhaps himself as well) that McCain has a real shot. the GOP operative relies on supposed examples of the Bradley Effect in 2006. Poblano debunks the pseudo analysis but it is worthwhile to review the demographics. More . . .

DKos/R2000 has Obama up 8, 50-42. This is down from Obama's 12 point lead in this poll 2 days ago. ABC/WaPo has Obama up 7, 52-45. Obama was up 11 in this poll 3 days ago. Ras has Obama by 8, 52-44 (Update - Now 5, 51-46.) Hotline has Obama up 8, 50-42. Gallup Expanded has Obama up 9, 51-42 (Update - now 10, 53-43.

Is the race tightening from a blowout to a big Obama lead? Not precisely. In essence, the polls are coalescing around an Obama lead of 7-9 points. At this point, no tracking poll has Obama with less than a 4 point lead or more than a 9 point lead. Most are between 7 and 9.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

The latest Washington Post Virginia poll has Barack Obama up by 8.

As an example of the gains he has made since [the last] poll, Obama is now tied with McCain among college-educated white men, overcoming what had been an almost 30-point deficit for the Democrat.

...Part of Obama's late advantage can be traced to widespread voter unease about the economy, record low approval ratings for President Bush and a growing number of voters who have strongly negative perceptions of GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin.

It appears Obama is unstoppable at this point -- so long as all his supporters remember to vote.

"New Subject" highlights that John McCain is out of ideas, out of touch and running out of time. With no plan to lift our economy up, John McCain is trying to tear Barack Obama down with scare tactics and smears.

The Des Moines Register has endorsed Barack Obama for President. Why not John McCain?

But it's as if McCain has lost his way, forfeiting principle for gain of a few points in the polls. He put on hold his long-sought quest for comprehensive immigration reform. Though widely regarded as a man of honor, he has overseen a campaign premised on purposeful distortions about Obama and his record.

Worst of all, in grasping for political edge in his choice of a running mate, he burdened his ticket and potentially the country with an individual utterly unqualified to ascend to the presidency. Before choosing Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, McCain emphasized the importance of experience and sound judgment in fighting terrorism and confronting a restive Russia and a rising China. He has also questioned Obama's readiness to be commander in chief. Then he picked a running mate who clearly isn't ready.(emphasis supplied.)

On the plus side for Obama, besides the economy and his inspiring of voters: [More...]

The Anchorage Daily News today endorsed Barack Obama for President. While it has some encouragement for Palin as regards her future career in politics, it aptly notes:

To step in and juggle the demands of an economic meltdown, two deadly wars and a deteriorating climate crisis would stretch the governor beyond her range. Like picking Sen. McCain for president, putting her one 72-year-old heartbeat from the leadership of the free world is just too risky at this time.

Obama leads McCain in daily newspaper endorsements 160 to 59, an almost 3-1 margin. Here's a list.