Update [2008-8-20 19:52:7 by Big Tent Democrat]: CBS poll also has it 45-42 Obama.

The NBC/WSJ poll has Obama leading 45-42, but Obama still having trouble with Clinton supporters:

[P]erhaps the biggest factor keeping the presidential race close has been Obama’s inability to close the deal with some of Hillary Clinton’s supporters. According to the poll, 52 percent of them say they will vote for Obama, but 21 percent are backing McCain, with an additional 27 percent who are undecided or want to vote for someone else. . . . For these reasons, Hart believes that Clinton’s speech on the Tuesday night of the Democratic convention will be a significant event. “The Democratic convention is more than a coronation,” he says. “It is an event where the words of Hillary Clinton are probably going to be exceptionally important.”

Oh, and Clinton would lead McCain by 6 49-43, in a hypothetical contest. But hypotheticals do not matter. And yep, picking Clinton for VP would solve Obama's problems to a great extent imo.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Matt Yglesias jokingly proposes the Adlai Stevenson 1956 model for choosing the VP:

[H]ow about this — Obama could pull an Adlai Stevenson in 1956 and throw the selection open to the Convention delegates. The problem with that move, of course, is that you don’t get to fine-tune the pick. But it turns out to be the case that there seem to be substantial problems with all the possible picks. And opening the selection to the field would ensure huge media coverage of the convention and perhaps a bigger-than-usual convention bump.

Yeah, like that would not be a disaster with pro- and anti-Hillary force arraying. And the last thing Obama would need would be to be compared to Adlai Stevenson right now. It would be fun though to see that food fight. Let's makes this is an Open Thread.

By Big Tent Democrat

Update: Via radio: The Obama campaign says no events are planned in Indianapolis on Saturday.

Adding another layer to the Veepstakes, the Nashville Post reports today that signs are pointing to Evan Bayh as Sen. Barack Obama's veep choice:

NashvillePost.com has learned that senior campaign officials from the Barack Obama Presidential campaign are being dispatched from various locations around the country and are converging in Indianapolis for a “major event” to take place on Saturday.

...Sources in Denver, the site of next week's Democratic National Convention, say that individuals responsible for Obama's major public appearances have been pulled out of the city and are heading east towards Indiana.

More...

The Presidential electoral map is looking more an more like the Blue/Red split we have become accustomed to these past 8 years. The latest evidence of this is the PPP MO poll:

McCain’s advantage is 50-40, a seven point increase from PPP’s July poll, which showed him leading by just three points. Obama’s biggest issue is with white voters, who support McCain by a 56-35 margin. “There aren’t enough black voters in Missouri for Barack Obama to win it if he can’t make things more competitive among white voters,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “That’s going to be his challenge if he wants to have any chance at winning the state.”

Obama's chances of changing the Red/Blue dynamic are best in Colorado (9 EVs), Virginia (13 EVs) and Nevada (5 EVs). Iowa and New Mexico (12 EVs combined) have swung back and forth in the last 2 elections and Obama looks pretty good in those 2 states. That's 39 electoral votes total from those 5 states. Obama needs 18 more than Kerry to win the Presidency, so if he wins Iowa and New Mexico and holds the Kerry states, then he only needs only one of VA or CO (NM gets him to a 269-269 tie). Of course, Florida (27 EVs) or Ohio (20 EVs) alone would do the trick, but they seem a second thought for the Obama campaign.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

More on my theme of the day - Bill Maher on Larry King last night:

KING: So who do you -- who do you handicap? Do you think it's going to be one of these three boring white guys?

MAHER: I do, but I think that's, again, the wrong -- the wrong sort of strategy. At this point I think they need Hillary Clinton. . . . Yes. Look, I may change my mind tomorrow. I've been thinking this way a long time, but I swear to God. Not just because it's bold and they need to show bold, but you know what? I think they need the Clinton ruthlessness onboard. I really do.

I'm beginning to think Bill Clinton is still the only guy in that party who really knows how to do this, as far as talking to the American people, making the counter argument to the Republican arguments that, again, Obama just seems to be cozying up to their way of thinking. . . .

Awakening to the political virtues of Bill and Hillary Clinton? Could it be a trend?

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Sorry to clutter the page this morning, but I have to share this post from Americablog. This passage especially:

[I]f you thought that somehow this year was going to be different - something would change and somehow the American electorate would look completely different this year than any other year, the numbers today just don't show that. This isn't a transformative election, it's another hardscrabble, claw out each and every vote, election. To win that kind of election, you need to fight for every vote and fight hard. That's why you hear the concern you hear from Josh Marshall, John, Joe, etc. And it's backed up by years of experience watching the Republicans make Democrats look weak - Carter, Mondale, Dukakis, Gore, and Kerry [BTD -look what name is missing from that list]. That line of attack works when not countered and we were defeated. None of us want that in 2008.

(Emphasis supplied.) Now they want a fighter?

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

It seems fair to characterize the Presidential race as too close to call right now based on the recent polling. But I still cling (reference intended) to the underlying dynamics being incredibly favorable to Democrats and Barack Obama. George W. Bush remains our ace in the hole. This is still Obama's contest to lose, even though he seems to be doing his damnedest to lose it. So what now? Well, first and foremost, I hope and think that every one has learned their lesson that "hope" and "change" and "ground game" and "50 state strategy" are all nice words, but do not translate into an easy win, even in this favorable climate. The Obama campaign has to dig in and fight the fight.

More . . .

Update [2008-8-20 10:4:28 by Big Tent Democrat]: Battleground Poll has McCain by 1, 47-46.

Boy, is John Zogby shameless. He'll massage his numbers anyway he can to get attention. And he does so in his latest Presidential poll:

In a sharp turnaround, Republican John McCain has opened a 5-point lead on Democrat Barack Obama in the U.S. presidential race and is seen as a stronger manager of the economy, according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released on Wednesday.

McCain leads Obama among likely U.S. voters by 46 percent to 41 percent, wiping out Obama's solid 7-point advantage in July and taking his first lead in the monthly Reuters/Zogby poll.

Obviously, the race has tightened, but Zogby needs some attention so he releases this. The man is a charlatan, not a pollster.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Having been joined now by a chorus of Obama blogs in concern with Obama's post partisan unity schtick campaign, I am somewhat amused that no one noticed the problem before. TPM has been on it all day but this e-mail Marshall posts got my attention:

Obama needs to own the branding of John McCain, the man. . . . To that end, I think the essence of Obama's campaign needs to be "John McCain will do anything to get elected."

Obama has experience in that message no doubt ("Hillary will say or do anything to get elected") but it won't work on McCain because the Media will not play along. The problem is Obama has never gone after Republicans and specifically tied them to Bush (he of the 25% approval rating.) People are making this more complicated than it is. All you have to send as a message is not MCCain - flip flopper or anything like that, you say McCain - Bush's third term. Period, That is the negative branding that should be driven home every single day. That should be Obama's message every single day. But Dems don't do negative branding, they just get branded. I wrote about this when I was ripping into Lakoff back in 2006:

Via Greta: Karl Rove was on Hannity and Colmes tonight:

He was just asked who he thought Senator Obama should pick…he said the criteria should not be a political one (eg should not be whether VP can deliver a state) but rather who is ready to be President should something happen. He then said the choice should be Senator Hillary Clinton.

ABC says Biden backtracked a little on his denial that he is Obama's Veep pick. My response:

And a shout-out to Jerome at MyDD.

It's also looking less likely Hillary or Kathleen Sebelius will be the choice. ABC News says Obama's been using the "he" pronoun today rather than his customary "he or she."

I still say it's more likely Kaine than Biden.

I think politico-types are reading too much into the veep-stakes' tea leaves. On the most basic level, consider the obvious:

• Kaine is the only one of the final choices without a convention speaking slot
• Obama and Kaine are speaking together tomorrow in Virginia.

On another level, consider that Barack Obama and the Democratic party have made it clear the emphasis this year is on faith. It's going to be a faith-based convention. Obama has always been hope and change, and people tend to focus too much on the change. Hope, which equates with faith, is an equal part of his message.

Here's Tim Kaine on why he went into politics: [More...]