Indiana stays Republican according to SUSA's Indiana poll:

In an election for President of the United States held today in Indiana, Republican John McCain defeats Democrat Barack Obama by 6 points, 50% to 44%[.] . . . Compared to an identical poll released eight weeks ago, Obama is down 3 points; McCain is up 3.

SUSA's demo breakdowns are always the most interesting part. Let's look at them on the flip.

Update [2008-8-19 20:6:26 by Big Tent Democrat]: NBC says it does not matter, because Biden does not know if he is "the guy." And NBC reports Biden wlaks it back completely. Now we know. Biden IS the pick.

From First Read:

As Delaware Sen. Joe Biden left his home a few minutes ago, golf clubs in tow, he was asked where he was going to be on Saturday. Biden replied, "Here" and pointed down to his driveway. As he pulled out of the driveway in the driver's seat of his car he then said to the press gathered near his gate, "You guys have better things to do. I'm not the guy."

(Emphasis supplied.) Biden is not much of a game player on these things. When he says he is "not the guy," I believe him. That means Kaine is the guy. This is a terrible mistake by Obama imo. Not picking Clinton is ridiculous, but Biden gave Obama some cover. Kaine is inexperienced and a weak politician who will "reinforce" Obama's weakness.

If Kaine or Sebelius is the pick, I have to say I think Obama no longer is a shoo in and in fact is not much of a favorite anymore. An amazing turn of events I think. All Obama has to do to insure victory is pick Hillary Clinton as his running mate and he refuses to do it. Just amazing.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

While we're waiting for the LA Times poll results that Big Tent Democrat will write about, here's today's Quinnipiac poll:

American likely voters say 55 - 27 percent that Arizona Sen. John McCain is better qualified than Illinois Sen. Barack Obama to deal with Russia and now trails the Democrat 47 - 42 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today.

This compares to a 50 - 41 percent Sen. Obama lead in a July 15 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Even pro-Obama bloggers aren't happy with Obama's campaign strategy. Here's Josh Marshall: [More...]

Update [2008-8-19 17:23:39 by Big Tent Democrat]: LATimes poll has Obama 15 point lead evaporating, now up 2, 45-43.

Have no idea what "underperforming" is supposed to mean, but the LATimes blog says that is what its new poll shows Obama doing:

Which White House contender had the better summer? A new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll of registered voters across the country leaves little doubt about the answer.

We can't reveal the precise figures yet; for that, check back at LATimes.com about 2 p.m. PDT (5 p.m. EDT). Suffice to say that the results will not alter the perception that -- given a seemingly sunny political climate for Democrats -- Barack Obama is under-performing nationally.

We'll see what it means at 5 EDT. I'll update this post then.

By Big Tent Democrat

Sen. Barack Obama and his vice presidential running mate will attend a rally in Springfield, IL on Saturday. That's where Obama announced his candidacy.

More and more pundits are predicting Joe Biden. I think Obama would be smarter to pick Biden for Secretary of State than Vice President. Biden is the antithesis of change in Washington. He's been there since Nixon was President. Talk about getting sold a bill of goods.

Just what we don't need, a vice-president whose politics on crime are mired in the failed policies of the '80's.

So much for that progressive foreign policy you were expecting in an Obama Administration. Obama strikes a pose on the Russia-Georgia conflict:

I’m proud to join my friend, Senator Joe Biden, in calling for an additional $1 billion in reconstruction assistance for the people of Georgia."

Any money for South Ossetia in there? Or how about Joe Biden saying "Russia’s actions in Georgia will have consequences?” You on board with that Sen. Obama? Or his, via Greenwald and Billmon, vigorous lobbying for expanding NATO to Georgia? BTW, here is a part of an Obama speech Matt Yglesias admired:

I am running for President because I am sick and tired of Democrats thinking that the only way to look tough on national security is by talking, and acting, and voting like George Bush Republicans.

Now Joe Biden and John McCain are sounding good to Obama on foreign policy. Progressive foreign policy? We hardly knew ya.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

Via CNN, Al Gore has accepted a speaking role for Thursday night at the Democratic Convention, the same night Sen. Barack Obama will make his acceptance speech.

John McCain was ridiculed by some (I think it is a ridiculous statement myself) when he said about the Russia-Georgia conflict:

My friends, we have reached a crisis, the first probably serious crisis internationally since the end of the Cold War.

(Emphasis supplied.) Upon his return from Georgia, the likely Democratic Vice Presidential nominee, Joe Biden said:

I left the country convinced that Russia's invasion of Georgia may be the one of the most significant event to occur in Europe since the end of communism[.]

(Emphasis supplied.) That sounds pretty ridiculous to me too. And in a Mouse That Roared moment, Biden came back wanting to hand Georgia a billion dollars for its attempt to take South Ossetia back by force:

When Congress reconvenes, I intend to work with the administration to seek Congressional approval for $1 billion in emergency assistance for Georgia . . .

Just brilliant. So the Obama/Biden ticket will be like McCain on this. Just brilliant.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only

(larger version here.)

The LA Times asks whether Hillary Clinton gave Bill Richardson a shrug or a hug Monday while campaigning for Barack Obama in New Mexico.

Here's the video, you decide.

The New York Times reports Obama's campaign says there will be no Veep announcement Tuesday. The Times thinks it's down to Kaine, Bayh and Biden.

The spin for those who don't like the Veep pick will be that Veep picks don't really matter.

“Vice-presidential candidates can make a marginal difference,” said Matt Bennett, the co-director of Third Way, a Democratic advocacy group, “but they rarely matter in terms of winning a state or region — as Mike Dukakis and John Kerry found out. And a weak candidate doesn’t really drag the ticket into the drink — as George H. W. Bush found out.”

Tell that to George McGovern -- Thomas Eagleton, anyone?

I'm back to thinking Sen. Barack Obama will pick Virginia Governor Tim Kaine as his running mate.

Drudge quotes a New York Times reporter as saying the announcement could come tomorrow morning, but is more likely to occur Weds. morning. A Washington Post reporter thinks Friday is more likely.

Obama will be in Virginia on Wednesday. Also significant is this WaPo article about Obama's emphasis on Virginia. While some say the Dems wouldn't have given Mark Warner the convention keynote speaker slot if the VP also was from Virginia, I think they might, given how much effort Obama is putting into registering new voters in Virginia in hopes of turning the state blue. [More...]

I've been getting some e-mails that are upset that my support for Barack Obama for President is not blind. Nothing new there, but I was struck by a particular pitch I got from one Obama fan:

I find it disheartening that you contantly choose to bash [Obama] on www.talkleft.com. It is as if he hurt you personally. . . . I have phone banked and attended voter registration. People are a lot more informed of the issues than you think. It is about voter registration to make up for the 10% Clintonites who won't vote for him and getting them out to vote which is what unfortunately what Bush did in 2000. After watching the media bash Clinton and distort her I am seeing them do the same to Obama. He stays consistant, registering more voters, and on message. I know it was hard for me to see Clinton lose but I have met some wonderful and active Obama supporters who will come out and guarantee a win. Please don't believe the media hype. You know what they did to Clinton and what they will constantly do. We don't have any wedge issues to drive out the GOP so we can win it. He is not John Kerry. I have never seen supporters like he has.

(Emphasis supplied.) The e-mailer claimed to have been a Clinton supporter in the primaries and I have no reason to disbelieve that but I was struck by the idea that instead of trying to appeal to other Clinton supporters, this Obama supporter is confident that Obama can ignore them because of his great ground game. I just do not get that - why is there this insistence among certain Obama supporters - I call them "anti-PUMAs", to not try and win former Clinton supporters to Obama. It is an interesting phenomenon.

By Big Tent Democrat, speaking for me only