I do notice the strangely large percentage of people saying they'll vote for someone else. Perhaps related to the way SUSA supposedly pauses for "press N for 'undecided'."

African Americans will be over-represented in the democratic primary since a lot of whites (and the true racists) are, you know, Republican.  If you assume blacks make up 30% of the vote and Obama gets 90% of those, that gives him 27% and Clinton 3%.  Now, assume Hillary wins 60% of the white vote (probably much more women than men), that gives her 42% and Obama 28%.  Put them together and it would give Obama a 55%-45% win.  

Change the demos (e.g. the ratio of black to white voters) or change how each does with the demos and you get a different result.  But assuming the demos vote about how they have in other states, 10% seems about right to me.  

Pennsylvania.

North Carolina.

I usually just lurk here, it is such an excellent site and many thanks to Jeralyn and BTD for all their hard work here, I especially appreciate their comments on MI/FL.

There are quite a few registered Democrats here that haven't met a Democrat for Federal office that they would vote for since LBJ signed the civil rights act.

There has been an influx of "yankees" (I married and divorced one of them!)   in the last five to 10 years and the demographics are gradually changing to a more blue state, i.e., purple in metro areas.  Thank the maker (!), someday we might start electing better candidates.  Larry Kissell nearly beat Robin Hayes, I believe it was something like 300 votes, last time around, so here's hoping the second time is a charm and in a very "red" district too.

It is not uncommon here to see people with confederate flag stickers  on their vehicles and the further out of the metro areas you go, the more you will see this.  These people, believe it or not, refer to the Civil War as "the war of northern aggression".    These people wouldn't vote for Obama if hell froze over, but then again they usually vote Republican, but a great many of them are registered Democrats (to me that is beyond weird).  These people will probably vote in the primary for anyone but Obama and will make an effort to vote in the primary simply to vote against him.  It's not a position I take, but that is NC.  

We are actually turning the clock back on desegregation here and resegregating our schools and the school board member that initiated the lawsuit to end all this, wins the most votes term after term.  I don't understand all the legalese behind it, but this man sued and it was declared Swann vs Mecklenburg BOE, the feds no longer had to intervene and mandatory racial quotas ended, so the school system here is going way, way backward and there are many that are happy with that, I am not one of them!  The inequity is mind boggling, socioeconomic, as well as racial inequality are becoming huge here.

If it weren't for the Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill areas, I doubt that Obama would be polling as high as he is.  These are the areas he will do well in. This is a very interesting area to watch, if he can't pull very high numbers here 919 area code, he is toast.

I am way beyond stunned (delighted as an unabashed Hillary supporter) that he is not doing as well in the 704 area.  I'm sure his campaign is pretty worried about this, if not should be.  The 704 area went for Kerry in 2004, so I'm really shocked, I thought it was BO terrority for sure, but apparently not. It is a large district.

I think that Hillary has the opportunity to pull a big surprise here in NC.  One of these years NC will turn blue for president, maybe in the next 16 years,but as our schools are resegregating again, it will be a very narrow window, I believe.

The way the districts are cut up is really weird to, there was a big too do about racial gerrymandering of districts a while back, but the districts still stand right now.

I have seen a PPP poll recently that has Obama with a large lead, they polled something like 36% AA, but the total AA population of NC is only 21%, so this poll seems kind of wacky to me.

Also seen a weird one in the last week, Charlotte Observer (McClatchy newspaper)/WCNC poll with something like 35 Obama, 26 Clinton.  No not a typo, that many undecided, huge # of undecided!  In Texas, Hillary won a very large number of undecideds...haven't gone back to see if she gets all undecideds all the time...but hopeful to me.

I think NC is a very interesting and odd state, but of course I'm partial and I am so delighted to have my vote "matter" this primary season. Wish MI/FL's did also.  Wish NC wasn't so racially inclined, but it is, but becoming less so with every "yankee" transplant!

There are plenty of people I know that think that Hillary is just the best candidate and then there are the others that will not vote for Obama and they are going to be very, very firm in their commitment for reasons of racial discomfort.  He will not be able to change these voters minds, it's far to ingrained in them.  Their kids might vote for him, but the parents will not - it's the way they were raised.