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Monday Open Thread

By Big Tent Democrat, Section Blog Related
Posted on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 10:36:30 AM EST
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I have filled the page with my thoughts. I will be out for the rest of the day. J and Chris are sure to come along. But for now, it is your turn.

This is an Open Thread.

< Dems For HOLC | McCain Revamps Palin's Debate Prep Team >

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    Monday Open Thread | 153 comments (153 topical)

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    How long does that... (5.00 / 0) (#2)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 10:47:47 AM EST
    ...JohnMcCainRecord.com ad run?  Everytime I see that dour picture of him, I loose what little appetite I have...

    That's probably because. . . (5.00 / 0) (#3)
    by LarryInNYC on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 10:50:16 AM EST
    in the picture he looks like he's about to spew, doesn't he?  They shouldn't photograph him when he's listening to Palin being interviewed.

    Parent
    Either that... (5.00 / 0) (#6)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 11:15:06 AM EST
    ...or Cindy just told him he wasn't getting his allowance this month.  

    I sooo can't wait until November.

    Parent

    Then why do you go there?? (2.00 / 0) (#123)
    by jimakaPPJ on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:26:08 PM EST
    I avoid things that make me sick.... like KOS, MoveON, MSNBC...

    Parent
    Oh PBJ... (5.00 / 0) (#136)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:41:07 PM EST
    ...your reading comprehension isn't what it used to be, eh?  I was talking about the ad--I didn't say I went to the website.  

    If you're going to troll, you should pay better attention.  

    Troll better!

    Parent

    Well, maybe my reading skills (2.00 / 0) (#146)
    by jimakaPPJ on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 04:09:23 PM EST
    are bad... maybe not...

    But why look at an ad that bothers you?

    Life is a series of events.... many of which it is better to just ignore.

    Parent

    McCain's Spain Gaffe (5.00 / 0) (#4)
    by indy in sc on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 10:53:13 AM EST
    is the gift that keeps on giving.  The prime minister of Spain personally thanking Obama for not being afraid to welcome him may not move the dial for a lot of voters generally--but for those hispanic voters that identify with Spain, I think this type of news will be helpful.

    So, what does the new financial (5.00 / 1) (#5)
    by Fabian on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 10:54:07 AM EST
    terrain look like?

    Apparently, a bunch of financial types used a variety of shady lending practices to sell high risk loans which were then artfully repackaged as low risk investments and this went on until enough loans started to go bad that the market began to suspect that the high risk paper was everywhere.  At that point it was.

    So suddenly, a whole lot of financial institutions were feeling very much poorer and unhappy investors were refusing to give them any more money.  Now we have a kind of financial gridlock and the market equivalent of currency devaluation.  (I think.)

    Now what?

    Going to my happy place to meditate (5.00 / 1) (#15)
    by Militarytracy on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 11:29:56 AM EST
    Time for me to open a backwoods bar so that I can be another generation in my family making a living creating a happy place for people to medicate.

    Parent
    Don't forget to apply for your (5.00 / 1) (#29)
    by Fabian on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 11:42:19 AM EST
    government subsidy!

    There's probably many a 'shiner turning over in their graves.  What was illegal is now a desirable, federally sanctioned enterprise - just because vehicles consume the end product instead of people!

    Parent

    I'm trying to decide if you need to be (5.00 / 1) (#30)
    by Militarytracy on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 11:43:52 AM EST
    the head of production or marketing.

    Parent
    I can do production. (5.00 / 1) (#41)
    by Fabian on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:01:12 PM EST
    I don't do the hard stuff, so I'll do quality control using science.

    Parent
    I'll pull up a stool.... (none / 0) (#16)
    by kdog on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 11:31:34 AM EST
    at your joint anytime Tracy...will smoking be permitted?

    Parent
    Only if it's outlawed (none / 0) (#28)
    by Militarytracy on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 11:42:11 AM EST
    This is an outlaw joint :)

    Parent
    Cool.... (5.00 / 1) (#32)
    by kdog on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 11:45:13 AM EST
    so any and all smoking is permitted...definitely my kinda joint!

    If you expand to the point that you need a dishwasher or barback, you know where to find me:)

    Parent

    I'm not sure that helping people self (none / 0) (#17)
    by tigercourse on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 11:31:55 AM EST
    medicate with an addictive substance is so much more noble then helping people get bad loans.

    Parent
    Appearing noble is obviously (5.00 / 0) (#21)
    by Militarytracy on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 11:34:40 AM EST
    overrated these days.  Acting noble gets you even worse pay than just appearing noble does.

    Parent
    As long as every 3rd or 4th... (none / 0) (#33)
    by kdog on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 11:46:16 AM EST
    round is a buyback, you bet your arse it is noble:)

    Parent
    If we don't get the markets unlocked (none / 0) (#120)
    by jimakaPPJ on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:24:26 PM EST
    ...can you spell Greater Depression?

    Pelosi couldn't deliver the Demo votes.... 124 of'em told her to stuff it.

    Worse House Majority Leader in history.

    Parent

    Whatever (none / 0) (#147)
    by jimakaPPJ on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 04:16:20 PM EST
    Fact remains it was a Democratic bill and neither Pelosi or Obama could get 10 more Democratic votes..

    That says a lot about the leadership skills of Obama...

    I guess Pelosi forget to "call him."

    LOL instead of crying.

    Parent

    Repeat after me (none / 0) (#158)
    by jimakaPPJ on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 09:25:28 PM EST
    The Democrats crafted the bill. The Democrats have a majority in Congress. The Bill had the support of the Administration and of John McCain.... and then it failed by 23 votes with 94 Democrats voting against.

    And you want to blame the Repubs? Please.......when I read that I just want to puke....

    It is being reported that Pelosi was telling Democrats in tough races to vote against the bill...that, after watching her outrageously partisan comments..

    She is the worst House Majority Leader in history.

    Parent

    Listening to Palin warm up (5.00 / 0) (#7)
    by LarryInNYC on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 11:19:53 AM EST
    a crowd in Ohio for McCain.

    Hate to say it -- she's really good.  Two out of three things she says are outright lies, but she delivers them well.

    That's EXACTLY why from (none / 0) (#11)
    by CaptainAmerica08 on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 11:25:14 AM EST
    an account a read, the Obama camp is taking her seriously for the VP debate. A lot of people thought that they were being sarcastic, but I think they were serious when they said she was a great debater.

    Parent
    It's going to come down. . . (5.00 / 1) (#14)
    by LarryInNYC on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 11:28:00 AM EST
    to the moderator.  If she lets Palin use prepared, off-topic answers (all too common during debates), she'll do well.  If she follows up and requests specific answers to specific, detailed questions it may well be a repeat of the Couric interview.

    On the whole, I imagine both candidates will do "fine" and the debate won't move people too much.  If there are one or two "Couric moments" I think it will juice Obama's polls another couple of points.

    Parent

    I hope they ask her.... (5.00 / 1) (#20)
    by kdog on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 11:33:07 AM EST
    if she thinks "The Flintstones" is an historically accurate documentary.

    Parent
    Hey Dog! (none / 0) (#117)
    by jimakaPPJ on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:21:25 PM EST
    The markets bothering you??

    Parent
    No way old pal.... (none / 0) (#131)
    by kdog on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:32:28 PM EST
    the retirement fund/gambling roll has suffered no significant losses recently.  In fact, it went up slightly with Curlin's victory in the Jockey Gold Cup this past Saturday.  

    Speaking of which, one of my all time favorite investment opportunities is no more though, Evening Attire finally has been retired at age 10 after a stellar career.  I'm gonna miss that old grey with the heart of a champion...cashed more than a few winners thanks to his other-worldly closing capabilities.  Went out a winner too, setting the track record at Philly Park for a mile and a half in his final start, at age 10!  

    Parent

    Glad to know you're well (none / 0) (#148)
    by jimakaPPJ on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 04:22:27 PM EST
    even though I never met a horse player who didn't die broke...;-)

    I can't remember the first time I heard it but...

    "99% of people who play the stock market should go to Las Vegas and play blackjack. The game is easier to learn and they'll give you free booze and a room... not to mention that Vegas runs an honest game."

    Come see me!

    Parent

    Who is the moderator? (none / 0) (#22)
    by oculus on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 11:34:56 AM EST


    Parent
    Gwen Ifill (5.00 / 0) (#27)
    by indy in sc on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 11:39:57 AM EST
    I hope she takes a page out of Couric's book--meaning ask pointed follow up questions.  Don't let either candidate get away with parroting a talking point that is a non-answer to the question posed.

    Parent
    Gwen Ifill. n/t (none / 0) (#24)
    by LarryInNYC on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 11:37:58 AM EST


    Parent
    She just quoted the (none / 0) (#13)
    by votermom on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 11:26:54 AM EST
    "great Governor Bob Casey of Pennsylvania" --- was he popular in OH?

    Parent
    Neighbors (none / 0) (#25)
    by BarnBabe on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 11:38:40 AM EST
    and a Pro-Lifer.....

    Parent
    It's the Pro Life bid. (none / 0) (#40)
    by Fabian on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 11:59:16 AM EST
    "We know you are p!ssed as you can be at politicians in general - but this is your big chance to show how Pro Life you are!" - that's my take.

    It's kind of gruesome looking at the whole arranged marriage for Palin's daughter.  I'd be "Honey, you have the baby and live here and don't worry about getting married.".  

    48 percent of those who marry before 18 are likely to divorce within 10 years, compared with 24 percent of those who marry after age 25.
    [link] When you tie the knot, it's more than love - it's a whole lot of legal responsibilities.  And that legal contract is often more difficult to get out of than it was to get into.  And women?  Statistically, they make out worse than men when it comes to divorce.

    Don't do it for the baby.  That's what family court is for.

    Parent

    I'm afraid the VP debate (5.00 / 1) (#9)
    by CaptainAmerica08 on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 11:21:31 AM EST
    is now going to be a waste of time politically speaking and I'm deciding if I want to watch or not. Because of the McCain camp's disasterous handling of her and making her look like a fool that she is not, the expectations are absurdly low. All she has to do is string together a couple sentences with a noun, a verb, and 9/11, and she will be hailed as success by the vacuous media. And I'll predict right now that if Biden doesn't have a gaffe or say something that makes him look like a jerk, his performance will be deemed "vanilla" or "boring". Trust me on that one.

    well (5.00 / 1) (#10)
    by connecticut yankee on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 11:24:30 AM EST
    Anyone who doesnt think she's decent in a debate just needs to check out the AK debate.

    Nothing stellar, but she did fine.  Her problem isnt skill, its knowledge of national issues. But that can be faked.

    http://nz.youtube.com/watch?v=y1-B-OyQ-KI

    Parent

    Yep. That's why I agree with (5.00 / 1) (#19)
    by CaptainAmerica08 on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 11:32:21 AM EST
    some pundit that said she may be rattled a little bit now because McCain's camp has been treating her like a idiot and not giving her the info and tools she needs to succeed in the media game. If you look and study the AK debate, you can tell she has had training in this area and Biden better watch out now that expectations have been lowered for her way beyond what is the reality.

    Parent
    All she has to do is convince (none / 0) (#47)
    by oculus on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:21:03 PM EST
    the majority of those polls she "looked" Vice-Presidential.  

    Parent
    Opinion Oppression (2.00 / 0) (#37)
    by Mr Natural on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 11:54:19 AM EST
    "Senator Barack Obama's presidential campaign is asking Missouri law enforcement to target anyone who lies or runs a misleading television ad during the presidential campaign."

    http://www.kmov.com/video/index.html?nvid=285793&shu=1

    Missouri Governor Matt Blunt's blunt response:

    "St. Louis County Circuit Attorney Bob McCulloch, St. Louis City Circuit Attorney Jennifer Joyce, Jefferson County Sheriff Glenn Boyer, and Obama and the leader of his Missouri campaign Senator Claire McCaskill have attached the stench of police state tactics to the Obama-Biden campaign."

    "What Senator Obama and his helpers are doing is scandalous beyond words, the party that claims to be the party of Thomas Jefferson is abusing the justice system and offices of public trust to silence political criticism with threats of prosecution and criminal punishment."

    "This abuse of the law for intimidation insults the most sacred principles and ideals of Jefferson. I can think of nothing more offensive to Jefferson's thinking than using the power of the state to deprive Americans of their civil rights. The only conceivable purpose of Messrs. McCulloch, Obama and the others is to frighten people away from expressing themselves, to chill free and open debate, to suppress support and donations to conservative organizations targeted by this anti-civil rights, to strangle criticism of Mr. Obama, to suppress ads about his support of higher taxes, and to choke out criticism on television, radio, the Internet, blogs, e-mail and daily conversation about the election."

    http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2008/09/missouris_obama_truth_squads_2.html

    I apologize for citing a right wing blog, but this news doesn't seem to have gotten past the new Ministry of Truth.

    Shrug (5.00 / 0) (#52)
    by Steve M on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:32:00 PM EST
    Sounds like cheap demagoguery to me.  It's ironic to see the governor - the state's highest executive official, unless I'm mistaken - going on about how inappropriate it is for law enforcement officials to get involved in deciding which political messages are true and false, while at the same time reciting tripe about Obama's "support of higher taxes."  Right, Governor, you'd never want to take sides.

    Parent
    Do you really belive (none / 0) (#135)
    by jimakaPPJ on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:40:17 PM EST
    that political opponents should decide what is true and false?

    I hope you know better. I'm sure you do.

    But if you don't know for sure that the Governor of a state is its highest executive officer.... maybe you don't..

    Obama's minions are now saying that they didn't mean it.... Sure. Pay no attention to the man behind the screen.

    `I don't know what you mean by "glory,"' Alice said.

    Humpty Dumpty smiled contemptuously. `Of course you don't -- till I tell you. I meant "there's a nice knock-down argument for you!"'

    `But "glory" doesn't mean "a nice knock-down argument,"' Alice objected.

    `When I use a word,' Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, `it means just what I choose it to mean -- neither more nor less.'

    `The question is,' said Alice, `whether you can make words mean so many different things.'

    `The question is,' said Humpty Dumpty, `which is to be master - - that's all.'

    ---"Through The Looking Glass," Lewis Carroll

    Parent

    How about ... (2.00 / 0) (#38)
    by Mr Natural on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 11:56:38 AM EST
    an attorney's opinion on this?

    To me, it reeks of the Gonzales mediated tactics used by Dubya.

    Parent

    Thanks for the info (none / 0) (#58)
    by Newt on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:35:46 PM EST
    I'm writing Governor Blunt's office asking them to support the law and not complain about other people asking them to do their jobs and enforce the law...

    Parent
    Wachovia to Citibank (none / 0) (#1)
    by andgarden on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 10:40:55 AM EST
    with a strange FDIC backing. Anyway, at least there won't be a full implosion.

    Obama is in Adams County today... (none / 0) (#8)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 11:21:29 AM EST
    ...wooing the suburban/independent/undecided voters up there...

    "Obama will make his second trip here and Michelle Obama her first since the Democratic National Convention in August. Earlier this month Obama visited Denver, Grand Junction and Pueblo.

    His return to Denver and Michelle Obama's appearance in Boulder show the importance of the two areas for the campaign. High turnout in Democrat-heavy Denver and Boulder, along with a strong showing in the suburbs and support from unaffiliated voters, is critical to an Obama victory in Colorado."
    --Rocky Mountain News

    Adams county has more registered independents than registered D or R voters, IIRC.


    Denver and Boulder (none / 0) (#54)
    by trublueCO on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:33:09 PM EST
    are great opportunities for Obama to run up the score in Dem leaning areas to hedge against losses in other counties around the state. Kerry won Denver and Boulder counties with healthy margins (70% and 66% respectively), but pushing the margins 5% higher in each would do wonders.

    I'm also thankful that Obama decided early on not to cede Colorado Springs and El Paso county to the Republicans. I've never seen the Democratic party so energized in Focus on the Family land.

    Parent

    Yep... (none / 0) (#65)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:42:30 PM EST
    ...and today he gets to talk about the ecomony in one of the hardest hit areas for foreclosure in the state.  

    I saw a video slide show over at the Rocky this morning about an El Paso country GOP fund raiser--and found it interesting that the crowd seemed to consist of about 20 people.  All white and mainly retirement age and over.  

    I don't think I've ever seen the state GOP in such a bad state of affairs than they are now.  

    Parent

    Sarah's off to the desert (none / 0) (#12)
    by Lahdee on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 11:26:04 AM EST
    For some debate practice and coaching, link.

    What if it doesn't work out and John McCain finds it necessary to dump Sarah Palin from the ticket? Could he do that and survive the fallout? Maybe, but it'd have to be for a great reason and the spin would have to be just right.

    He could always say she was unexpectedly called to an emergency at the Artic circle and will be out of touch for some time.
    Todd's racing schedule conflicts with Sarah's campaigning. Being supportive she's decided to stay home to cheer him on.
    Moose season started early this year and Sarah wants to bag a big one.
    There's all that napkin folding in preparation for the wedding.
    A witch was spotted near her hotel room.
    There's a new book in the library.
    Or he could just keep her and lose the election anyway.

    From the article... (none / 0) (#26)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 11:39:20 AM EST
    '"It's time to let Palin be Palin -- and let it all hang out," said Scott Reed, a Republican strategist.'

    Yep, that's a great idea.  

    Free Sarah!

    Parent

    I actually agree with that. (5.00 / 1) (#35)
    by indy in sc on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 11:47:33 AM EST
    I have ZERO interest in McCain/Palin winning, but they are doing her such a disservice by shielding her so much.  They're just adding pressure to every unscripted moment she has.  Biden has made some big gaffes in the last few weeks, but nobody paid attention because he's always available to the press.  He says a million things a day so a few off quotes are excusable and not overly scruitinized.

    The only reason to keep her so ensconsed is if she truly is the train wreck she appeared to be with Couric.  

    Either way, she's in intense debate prep and therefore she won't be unleashed anytime soon.  

    Parent

    If I were in charge (none / 0) (#44)
    by Fabian on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:06:12 PM EST
    I'd probably be prepping her nonstop.  She's got a great style, but her substance is...lacking.  All it would take is a few substantial faux pas and the story would go from Moose Hunting Mother! to McCain's Mistake?

    Parent
    Here's an idea. In the debate (none / 0) (#118)
    by oculus on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:23:37 PM EST
    picks up HOLC and runs w/it.  

    Parent
    It would be interesting for her to do so, but (none / 0) (#124)
    by Cream City on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:26:12 PM EST
    I would bet it's antithetical to her arch-conservatism.

    Parent
    i didn't get to ask BTD which team is more (none / 0) (#18)
    by jeffinalabama on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 11:31:56 AM EST
    disappointing-- a one-loss Florida or a one-loss Auburn.

    I vote for B... but i'm biased.

    Auburn of course (5.00 / 2) (#23)
    by Militarytracy on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 11:37:27 AM EST
    Joshua has Auburn casts that come off on Wednesday.  Half of his classmates wrote in their classmade cards to him "Go War Eagle"

    Parent
    Please tell Joshua (5.00 / 1) (#31)
    by jeffinalabama on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 11:45:01 AM EST
    to take it easy while he rebuilds some strength, and not to try to do everything he did before the casts for a few weeks... and tell him War Eagle for me!

    Parent
    I don't know about all that... (none / 0) (#34)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 11:46:28 AM EST
    ...but I think it is safe to put all of that "the SEC is the best conference" talk to rest.  

    Clearly, the Big Eight--err Twelve is the strongest top to bottom.  Just look at the top ten this week.  

    Once again, teh Heartland rules!

    Parent

    Shoot, Alabama alone may be better (none / 0) (#36)
    by CaptainAmerica08 on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 11:49:15 AM EST
    than ALL those teams except maybe OK. Did you see the GA-AL "game"?

    Parent
    I did... (none / 0) (#42)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:02:16 PM EST
    ...so much for those "black-out" jerseys!  Certainly was a wild weekend for college football fans.

    I've also seen Mizzu--they're flying under the radar right now, but they are a very impressive squad.  

    Parent

    Alabama is scary good right now. (none / 0) (#49)
    by jeffinalabama on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:27:20 PM EST
    Still, a lot of season left. The problem withthe SEC is that SEC teams knock each other around too much.

    Parent
    A casual reader might think (none / 0) (#85)
    by oculus on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:00:49 PM EST
    you advocate "fixing" the SEC contest so as to in a better position to win the BCS each and every year.

    Parent
    Heh (none / 0) (#89)
    by Steve M on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:03:48 PM EST
    And that's why their non-conference games are always against Eastern Tennessee, Western Tennessee, and Middle Tennessee.  Not that I'm looking to Moc them or anything.

    Parent
    and UCLA, Notre Dame... (none / 0) (#108)
    by jimakaPPJ on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:15:10 PM EST


    Parent
    Leave us alone Steve! Tennessee has (none / 0) (#140)
    by Teresa on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:49:46 PM EST
    enough problems with the Vols for the whole state. Don't pick on the little ones who at least try. :)

    BTW, Tennessee always plays at least one big name school out of conference each year. It's the other schools that won't, though, Florida has to play Fla St and Miami and Ga has to play Ga Tech and Clemson. Arkansas tries but they can't cut it.

    Parent

    Nonsense. (none / 0) (#43)
    by Mr Natural on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:05:05 PM EST
    BTD shut down and deleted the off topic post as I requested.

    This is an open thread, and where the post appropriately belongs.

    Sorry, Charlie. (none / 0) (#46)
    by LarryInNYC on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:09:41 PM EST
    The post is still there, along with BTD's response.

    Parent
    There were two posts following (none / 0) (#68)
    by Mr Natural on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:44:24 PM EST
    and they are both gone.

    BTW, "Charlie," since you took the trouble to read the remainder, tell us how BTD's response, a comment on "bailouts," is in any way a response to the Missouri Prosecutorial misconduct.

    Parent

    And no... (none / 0) (#45)
    by Mr Natural on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:07:20 PM EST
    BTD did not address the issue.

    He reponded with what I felt was an ad-hominem attack, to which I, as a guest, can not respond.

    Please address the issue, LarryInNYC.

    Time for another edition of (none / 0) (#48)
    by andgarden on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:26:59 PM EST
    SUSA Sez:

    In Florida:

    McCain 48
    Obama 47

    Previously, McCain 51, Obama 45. What's changed? Whites were supporting McCain 56/41, now just 52/42. Also, McCain led substantially with Hispanics, now just by 1.

    I think SUSA can't poll hispanics or blacks in Florida for some reason. For example, they still think McCain is getting 20% of the black vote.

    So, Florida even. And as we know, ties in Florida go to the Republicans. But McCain is going to have to keep spending his ever-decreasing resources on FL. No safe margin for him here.

    Welllll. . . (none / 0) (#51)
    by LarryInNYC on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:30:01 PM EST
    Also, McCain led substantially with Hispanics, now just by 1.

    I think SUSA can't poll hispanics or blacks in Florida for some reason. For example, they still think McCain is getting 20% of the black vote.

    If you're analysis is correct (and I know nothing about Florida except if you're driving on I95 and you see it, you missed New Jersey) then Obama could be in good shape for a surprise win there.

    That is, if they're off by ten points on both African American and Hispanic vote preferences. . .

    Parent

    I think you can take to the bank (none / 0) (#55)
    by andgarden on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:33:59 PM EST
    that Obama will win at least 90, and probably 95% of the black vote.

    Problem is that I don't have a clue about the hispanic vote. The tracker does not inspire confidence that SUSA does either.

    If I make my best guesses about who gets what, Obama ends up just north of 48%, and McCain at around 51%, like always for close races in Florida.

    The question is whether undecided whites break who broke away from McCain this week end up going to Obama. I wouldn't count on it.

    The other possibility is that Obama increases AA turnout by about 3-4%. I'm not sure that's possible, but if it is he can win Florida.

    Parent

    Well (none / 0) (#57)
    by Steve M on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:34:14 PM EST
    not all blacks are African-Americans.  For example, we all know that Cubans trend towards the GOP; well, if you're a black Cuban, what category do you fall into?  It was never clear to me during the primary whether black Hispanics tended to support Obama or Clinton, and I certainly never figured out which polling category they were squeezed into.

    Parent
    Florida is a pollster's nightmare, that's for sure (none / 0) (#59)
    by andgarden on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:37:33 PM EST
    Some Cubans say they're white, others don't. It really messes with the demographic weighting.

    Parent
    Speaking out of my tuchus. . . (none / 0) (#72)
    by LarryInNYC on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:49:33 PM EST
    (I can't claim any actual knowledge about Cuban American politics in Florida) that the Cuban as Republican issue likely results from anti-communist Cubans who believe they'll get back their property if Fidel is overthrown.  I would imagine they tend strongly towards white Cubans.

    Parent
    Who (none / 0) (#76)
    by Steve M on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:53:14 PM EST
    tends strongly towards white Cubans?

    Parent
    Sorry. . . (none / 0) (#80)
    by LarryInNYC on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:56:22 PM EST
    working, commenting, and listening to MSNBC bailout failure coverage in the background.

    I hypothesize that Republicanism in the Cuban community in Florida is mostly among the white Cuban community -- property owners and children of property owners who want to get back to "old Cuba".

    I realize I'm assuming that there's a dichotomy in the background of Miami Cubans that is correlated with skin color.  I have no knowledge that this is true, I'm basing it on the economic hierarchy here in the US.

    Parent

    I'm not sure about that (none / 0) (#87)
    by Steve M on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:01:57 PM EST
    but you're right that the GOP lean of certain immigrant groups has more to do with anti-Communism than anything.  If your family was persecuted by Communists in the homeland, you're likely to favor the party that was more aggressive in fighting Communism.

    Parent
    Unless that party... (none / 0) (#101)
    by MileHi Hawkeye on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:11:07 PM EST
    ...has also strained relations between the old country and their former communist oppressors--like say what has happened in Poland.  

    Or, that after 8 years of working with same said party, your relatives still can't come to the US without a special Visa.  

    Parent

    Pretty (none / 0) (#56)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:34:05 PM EST
    much confirms that FL is off the table for Obama. Nothing new there.

    Like you said before, it's going to be CO or VA if he holds the Kerry states.

    Parent

    Not quite off the table (none / 0) (#62)
    by andgarden on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:39:26 PM EST
    And obviously when it's this close, it would be strategically silly to concede it.

    PPP hints that they'll find Obama ahead in FL tomorrow. I'm betting that they find more black people likely to turnout than SUSA.

    We shall see.

    Parent

    PPP (none / 0) (#66)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:42:58 PM EST
    has a bad record. I would trust SUSA.

    Parent
    PPP is about about as OK as SUSA (none / 0) (#67)
    by andgarden on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:44:22 PM EST
    they just have less of a record, and aren't as transparent about their methodology.

    Anyway, SUSA is always my first stop.

    Parent

    BTW, is anyone if FL saying: (none / 0) (#70)
    by oculus on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:48:12 PM EST
    I'd never vote for Obama because he initially opposed seating all of FL delegates at DNC?  

    Parent
    I'm sure SOMEONE is (none / 0) (#73)
    by andgarden on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:49:39 PM EST
    but I rather doubt it's significant.

    There might, however, be a party structure support problem.

    Parent

    If PPP is "hinting" that Obama (none / 0) (#71)
    by nycstray on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:49:32 PM EST
    will be ahead tomorrow, does that effect their polling?

    Parent
    Can you explain how you think it would? (none / 0) (#75)
    by andgarden on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:50:40 PM EST


    Parent
    Polling while looking for (none / 0) (#84)
    by nycstray on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:00:38 PM EST
    or expecting an outcome could influence the process unintentionally or otherwise.

    Parent
    Can you show me where anyone said (none / 0) (#88)
    by andgarden on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:02:30 PM EST
    they were looking for a particular outcome? Or did you just make that up?

    Parent
    Ummm . . . (none / 0) (#96)
    by nycstray on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:08:31 PM EST
    PPP hints that they'll find Obama ahead in FL tomorrow.


    Parent
    They hint based on results already gathered (none / 0) (#104)
    by andgarden on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:12:07 PM EST


    Parent
    Ah, my brain didn't go there :) (5.00 / 1) (#110)
    by nycstray on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:17:13 PM EST
    I was thinking in terms of 'next time we poll Obama will be ahead'. Yeah, it's a Monday  ;)

    Parent
    By "hinting", the commenter means. . . (none / 0) (#103)
    by LarryInNYC on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:12:04 PM EST
    that PPP already has completed polling information which is scheduled to be released officially tomorrow -- but they're "teasing" us with hints of what's going to be in tomorrow's release.

    Polling companies seem to be doing this more frequently.

    Parent

    Thanks! :) (none / 0) (#111)
    by nycstray on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:17:41 PM EST


    Parent
    Isn't there a lot of intergenerational movement (none / 0) (#64)
    by jeffinalabama on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:40:59 PM EST
    among Cuban Americans from R to D? I seem to recall reading that some months ago.

    Also, let's not make the mistake of looking at Hispanic/Latino/a voters as a monolith... far from it.

    Now, I must admit, many Colombian Americans support McCain because of his support of the free trade agreement, but if this is the single issue, that category is probably lost anyway. Puerto Ricans support Obama, don't they? Aren't we seeing a lot of Mexican Americans supporting Obama?

    I need to become a poll wonk like BTD, but I don't have time.

    Parent

    Obama steadily losing Hispanics (none / 0) (#60)
    by Cream City on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:37:58 PM EST
    according to Gallup.  Lower and lower by the week.  I don't know cause to account for it in anything said or done -- or maybe not said or done?  And of course, it doesn't tell us which Hispanics and where, with such a diverse and dispersed group.  But the drop is there for Gallup.

    Parent
    I see no drop in Hispanic support (5.00 / 1) (#63)
    by andgarden on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:40:57 PM EST
    R2k, which I trust for demographic crosstabs, has had Obama at between 66 and 69% of the HIspanic vote since it's been available.

    Parent
    "I don't have a clue" on Hispanic vote (none / 0) (#113)
    by Cream City on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:18:25 PM EST
    unquote, andgarden, but seven minutes earlier.  So what caused you to get so clueless so fast?

    Parent
    That's Florida, (none / 0) (#116)
    by andgarden on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:19:58 PM EST
    which, as I also mentioned, is a special case. Nationally, I do have a pretty good idea.

    Parent
    Interesting (none / 0) (#50)
    by Ga6thDem on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:29:27 PM EST
    article that I just came across that made the point that both Obama's and McCain's domestic agendas are DOA because of the bailout.

    We'll be lucky (none / 0) (#69)
    by Mr Natural on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:45:33 PM EST
    if the whole country isn't DOA because of this mess.

    Greed at the top facilitating greed at the bottom.

    Parent

    LA Progressive reports that the McCain (none / 0) (#53)
    by Newt on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:32:07 PM EST
    campaign is running ads in Spanish in Florida, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada accusing Obama of being anti-immigrant by blocking a path to immigration with "poison pill" amendments to the comprehensive immigration bill that resulted in its defeat.  

    At the same time they're telling their far-right base (in English) that Obama is soft on illegal immigration.

    We need a new ad that shows both sides of their forked tongue communications.

    Link  

    Ah. See comment #60 (none / 0) (#61)
    by Cream City on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:39:06 PM EST
    on the drop in Hispanic support, per Gallup -- and you may have pinpointed a reason.

    Parent
    How could the DoJ IG Report . . . (none / 0) (#74)
    by Doc Rock on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:50:13 PM EST
    . . . in its chapter on Carol Lam never mention the accusation that Lam was canned to protect Republican Congressman Jerry Lewis from investigation?  

    To all you financial wizards: (none / 0) (#77)
    by oculus on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:53:41 PM EST
    News reports of TARP refer to "tranching," a word new to me so I looked it up.  Doesn't seem applicable to TARP.  Is it?   Is "tranching" a common term in financial circles?

    Tranche (none / 0) (#82)
    by Steve M on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:59:59 PM EST
    is very common in financial circles, a fancy word for dividing up a security or offering into subgroups.

    For example, when mortgage-backed securities are created, the investment bank typically divides the underlying mortgages up into three groups, from best loan to worst.  The mortgages in the lowest tranche, the really toxic ones, generally won't have any takers so the bank tends to get stuck holding onto them.

    In the context of TARP I've heard "tranche" used to refer to the fact that Congress is authorizing $350 billion now and $350 billion later, which sounds quite different from what I just described, but basically the word is just financial-speak for "dividing something into pieces."  Maybe tonight at dinner you can bring up the idea of saving a tranche for lunch tomorrow.

    Parent

    I'll have the tranched salmon (none / 0) (#92)
    by oculus on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:04:47 PM EST
    on a cedar plank, please.  

    Parent
    If you're able to participate (none / 0) (#98)
    by sarcastic unnamed one on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:09:37 PM EST
    in the first tranche of offerings from the big Bordeaux (for example) houses in France, you can often get a wine at a lower price than the 2nd, 3rd, etc., tranches.

    However, with salmon as the main course, I'd probably suggest a nice burgundy instead, whether or not you got a good deal on it.

    Parent

    The bailout didn't pass the house. I can't (none / 0) (#78)
    by tigercourse on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:53:54 PM EST
    believe the Democrats who didn't vote for it are willing to do this to the country. Dow down over 500.

    Good news. (none / 0) (#81)
    by LarryInNYC on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:57:08 PM EST
    Only 450 now.

    Parent
    Here's what pisses me off (none / 0) (#86)
    by TheRealFrank on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:01:21 PM EST
    They've surrendered time and again, and now, with elections around the corner, they decide to become all purist?

    If they consistently had picked a hard line, I could respect this. But this is just ridiculous.


    Parent

    You answered your question -- (none / 0) (#97)
    by Cream City on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:09:27 PM EST
    elections are around the corner.

    Pols always vote for self-preservation.

    Parent

    ha (none / 0) (#90)
    by connecticut yankee on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:04:06 PM EST
    Are republicans so lowly that we don't even afford them adult responsibilities?

    Theyve voted against this in larger numbers.

    Parent

    I expect Republicans to screw me over. (none / 0) (#126)
    by tigercourse on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:27:43 PM EST
    I don't expect Democrats to.

    Parent
    Almost 100 Dems vote against the bill (none / 0) (#93)
    by Cream City on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:07:43 PM EST
    while 66 GOPs vote with Barney Frank.  It's a mess.

    Parent
    Cool..... (none / 0) (#95)
    by kdog on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:08:06 PM EST
    If they can stall this thing long enough, maybe Wall St. and the banks will get their act together and fix their own mess without extorting 2 grand from every man, woman, and child in America.

    Parent
    The bailout (none / 0) (#79)
    by Makarov on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 12:55:29 PM EST
    just died in the House on the first procedural vote, 227-206. Voting against were 94 Dems and 133 Republicans. In favor were 141 Dems and just 65 Reps. This is bipartisanship I can believe in.

    Also, the major indexes were down about 3-4% before the vote started. Once nays broke 200, the Dow plummeted an additional 3%.

    Interesting (none / 0) (#91)
    by nycstray on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:04:45 PM EST
    I watched about 1/2 hour of people standing up saying it was a bad bill, but there was no choice it had to pass. All I could wonder was, why don't they make it a good bill?

    Parent
    Because a good bill to Democrats (none / 0) (#114)
    by Manuel on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:18:56 PM EST
    is a bad bill to Republicans.  This is a good bill precisely because everyone hates it.

    Parent
    According to Paulson (none / 0) (#141)
    by Makarov on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 02:00:53 PM EST
    and Bush - "there's no time, you have to pass this NOW NOW NOW".

    A good bill would require debate, expert testimony, and thought. There simply isn't time for this before adjournment. Congress wants to go back home to campaign.

    I say, don't worry, the crisis will still be here when you get back in November. This bill wasn't going to address the underlying problem - foreclosures contributing to decline in home values - anyhow.

    Parent

    There's no way they're going to muscle (none / 0) (#83)
    by andgarden on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:00:24 PM EST
    enough votes to get this to pass in the House.

    DOA.

    Both Presidential candidates breathe (none / 0) (#94)
    by oculus on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:07:54 PM EST
    sighs of relief.  Dodged a bullet.  Or is there more to come in the House?

    Parent
    This is a disaster IMO (5.00 / 1) (#100)
    by andgarden on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:11:00 PM EST


    Parent
    There was a question about a motion (none / 0) (#102)
    by Cream City on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:11:17 PM EST
    to reconsider.  Fyi, by parliamentary rules, that has to come from one who cast a nay vote.

    Parent
    Kagro x has a front pager up (none / 0) (#105)
    by oculus on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:13:44 PM EST
    at DK about the procedure.  

    Parent
    Dispensed with quickly (none / 0) (#106)
    by andgarden on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:13:48 PM EST
    Motions to reconsidered are almost never made in the House. And anyway, the vote is the vote.

    Parent
    One Presidential candidate is a Dem (none / 0) (#119)
    by Cream City on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:23:55 PM EST
    in the party that has a majority in the House, but almost 100 House Dems defected on the bill.  I think that could be easily spun to say that the party's leader didn't lead -- indeed, couldn't lead his own party.  Watch for that McCain spin.

    Of course, McCain flew into D.C. to get it done, too.  But he can say he got 66 GOPs to cross over, which would have been enough, had Obama gotten his Dems to fall in line.

    Now, I'd like to know more about the more than 100 members who didn't even vote.  


    Parent

    There was only one member who didn't vote (none / 0) (#125)
    by andgarden on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:26:33 PM EST


    Parent
    Scratch that -- fixed my math (none / 0) (#127)
    by Cream City on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:27:49 PM EST
    and almost every member did vote.

    CSpan seems to be intrigued with an Illinois member who didn't vote, though.  I don't get the reason for the fascination; I think he's a Repub.

    Parent

    Heh (none / 0) (#129)
    by Steve M on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:29:58 PM EST
    66 Republicans to "cross over" and support their own President's bill!

    Parent
    Yup (none / 0) (#133)
    by andgarden on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:33:04 PM EST
    The ideologues on both sides killed it.

    Parent
    Watch. Blunt already is saying it (none / 0) (#137)
    by Cream City on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:43:50 PM EST
    and it had Dem fingerprints on it, Dems espousing it.  The Repubs played that cutely, didn't they?

    Parent
    Republican Ownership of the Economic Disaster is . (none / 0) (#107)
    by santarita on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:15:04 PM EST
    now complete.  The House Republics tanked the  Bailout Bill.

    Yup (none / 0) (#109)
    by andgarden on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:17:08 PM EST
    Reps were supposed to deliver more votes.

    Parent
    I thought the Dems had a majority in the House? (none / 0) (#112)
    by sarcastic unnamed one on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:17:49 PM EST


    Parent
    Dems Rightly Wanted Bi-Partisan Support. (5.00 / 0) (#132)
    by santarita on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:32:56 PM EST
    They didn't get it.

    Parent
    Could've used a little more uni-partisan support (none / 0) (#138)
    by sarcastic unnamed one on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:43:59 PM EST
    from their own party...

    Parent
    Aint it the truth! (none / 0) (#150)
    by jimakaPPJ on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 04:25:07 PM EST
    I still can't believe how many Demos opted out...

    Parent
    Nothing like quoting a disgruntled ex-employee (none / 0) (#115)
    by jimakaPPJ on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:19:37 PM EST
    That sure makes me think its accurate.

    (Sarcasm alert)

    ah (none / 0) (#121)
    by connecticut yankee on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:25:36 PM EST
    Its not dead, this is all a game. NYT reports they will take another vote on it.  I'm guessing today.

    I bet Pelosi has a reserve of dems to call on but the gop needs to step up to get them released.

    Pure political brinkmanship going on here.

    Political cover for re-election then (none / 0) (#128)
    by Cream City on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:28:57 PM EST
    so those Dems can say they did vote against.  And hope their opponents don't see the devil in the details.

    Parent
    ha (none / 0) (#134)
    by connecticut yankee on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:38:31 PM EST
    That would be silly and easily exposed. We'll leave those tactics for McCain-Palin.

    It's just dem/rep hardball.

    The republicans right now are out saying the bill failed because their feelings are hurt over Pelosis partisan speech.   Kind of a lame argument when national security is at stake.

    Parent

    Silly works so often in Repub districts (none / 0) (#139)
    by Cream City on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:46:51 PM EST
    in my state, dominated by silly Repub media, that it would make you bang your head against the keyboard.  And one of the three rebel Repubs who held this up and still is leading the charge with Cantor is from a particularly silly part of my state.  And he will be a hero there.  (That it's also Feingold's home turf tells you how confusing it can be here.)

    Parent
    Are you kidding me?? (none / 0) (#149)
    by jimakaPPJ on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 04:23:55 PM EST
    dominated by silly Repub media

    And that state would be???

    Parent

    Wisconsin (none / 0) (#154)
    by Cream City on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 05:46:44 PM EST
    where we used to have two major papers dominating the state, but they merged, and the conservative papers' staff took all the top spots.  Another downside of media mergers.

    Parent
    Wisconsin has conservative media?? (none / 0) (#157)
    by jimakaPPJ on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 09:19:45 PM EST
    You must be Left of Mao....

    Parent
    Yes, it does. Have you read (none / 0) (#161)
    by Cream City on Tue Sep 30, 2008 at 10:21:46 PM EST
    the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel?  Do you even know that Wisconsin was the closest state last time, the closest to turning red?  I don't think so, as you seem to buy into the myth of Wisconsin being a progressive state.

    Do you at least know the site of the birthplace of the Republican party?

    Parent

    The self same former McCain (none / 0) (#122)
    by oculus on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:26:05 PM EST
    campaign guy-Weaver-who warned off the female telecomm lobbyist.  

    Weave had already parted ways with (none / 0) (#145)
    by oculus on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 03:43:21 PM EST
    McCain's campaign before the NYT article was published.

    Parent
    Yeah he was so correct (none / 0) (#151)
    by jimakaPPJ on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 04:27:18 PM EST
    that the NY Times backed off...

    ROFLMAO

    Parent

    What I said was (none / 0) (#156)
    by jimakaPPJ on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 09:18:12 PM EST
    and the fact is that the NY Times backed off.

    Hope that isn't too complex you.

    Parent

    Nope (none / 0) (#130)
    by jimakaPPJ on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 01:30:50 PM EST
    My understanding is a commentator can comment on what the person wants in an Open Thread.

    Or did I miss where you were appointed Table Captain??

    (Shades of Sailor!)

    ;-)

    The MSM is disgusting (none / 0) (#142)
    by Manuel on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 02:03:36 PM EST
    The same press that was busy whipping up opossition to the plan is now attacking the politicians for not doing what is responsible.  Unbelievable.

    Just the mention of his name gets people riled up. (none / 0) (#155)
    by stevea66 on Mon Sep 29, 2008 at 07:33:35 PM EST
    Sean Hannity.  nuff said.

    Monday Open Thread | 153 comments (153 topical)

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