What worries me is that, as more people check out of the political process because they feel that what they say at the voting booth isn't making a difference, it will just consolidate more power in the hands of the big money

That's what will happen.  Voter apathy.

As for a third party, IMO, the most likely scenario, if it happens at all, would be a split among Democratic power groups.  A significant Democratic power group that's burned enough and has taken a bad beating is organized labor.  I read (wish I'd saved the link) that labor told Obama not to expect rank and file members to work on his behalf in 2012, that rank and file members would only work for down ticket Democrats.

I can see some would abandon down ticket Democrats as well.  With Gang of Six proposals tied to a debt ceiling vote Democrats in the House and Senate may vote for the measure to avoid a potential immediate catastrophe and that would take the wind out of any volunteer's sails.  How can you campaign for someone who just kicked you in the gut.

The difference between the Democratic Party of 40+ years ago and today is the weakened labor movement that doesn't have the financial clout to have the biggest say in party policy.  

But organized labor could be a very big factor in creating a strong opposition.

Now J wants to take the 3rd Party exit. It is possible that many in this blog are having a mid life crisis and want to relive the summer of 72.

... it's probably just a "mid-life crisis" and some strange (unexplained) desire to relive their youth.

whites  made up 76.3% of the record 131 million people who voted in November's presidential election, while blacks made up 12.1%, Hispanics 7.4% and Asians 2.5%

Senior vote

Seniors vote at a rate of about 60 percent more than young people and about 10 percentage points higher than the national average.... seniors are the only group in America that has been increasing its rate of voter turnout, especially in the 75-and-older range.

Senior citizens turned out in force, with the number of ballots cast by voters over 65 increasing by 16 percent. While making up only 13 percent of the U.S. resident population, Americans in this age group constituted 21 percent of 2010 voters.

Both Carter and Gore thought their intraparty challengers actually weakened them for the general, and arguably they are right.  Though it's also possible that in different circumstances with a different incumbent there could be a stronger and more liberal-minded incumbent Dem running in the general, someone who's had the fear of significant liberal defections put into him and has no choice but to come over more to our side.

As for the 3d party challenge, as you acknowledge it will likely lead to a GOP WH victory.  But you plainly underestimate how long they will end up staying in office.  Last time (2000 election, Nader 3d party), it was 8 yrs (including 2 stolen elections), not the four you project.  

Before that, in 1980, we got 12 years of Reagan and ReaganLite.  By the time our side recovered and got our guy in, he was faced with a massive budget deficit much greater than he'd been led to believe was the case, thus the foundation was being laid for him to have to govern from the center more than he would have preferred, basically to undo the other party's damage.

I doubt if we'll be even that lucky next time if a 3d party dilutes our vote and the Romney/Perry ticket, with the Tea Party in tow, makes it to power.  Goodbye Sup Ct, goodbye voting rights, goodbye democracy.

And I expect that d@amn few of us have forgotten the controversy of the 2000 elections.  Or our history.  But we also remember what it used to mean to be a Dem.

It doesn't matter who wins in 2012.  The policies will be the same.  I don't understand how people can't see that.

Incredibly, our earliest hope for a return to Democratic positions isn't until 2016 -- and that's only if Obama loses.  If he wins, it won't be until 2020.  Because make no mistake -- a Republican administration will follow Obama.  He has done nothing to inspire the voting population to continue with the Democratic party.  We will have had either 12 or 16 years of the same policies, and people will be desperate for a change of some sort.  Any sort.

It was what we where feeling in 2008 but after 12 or 16 years instead of just the 8 Bush years, we will be even more desperate.

I'll mention Gephart again as a p or vp candidate. Is he still a pit bull? he used to be... and, if we can control his srong right-to-life stand, he's liberal on every other domestic issue.

But I don't peg her as someone who either passionately holds those views sufficient to make a primary run out of them, nor as someone who's temperamentally inclined to toss her hat in and undertake all the messy things one has to do in order to get votes.