Election Mid-Day Thread

By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2016
Posted on Tue Nov 08, 2016 at 02:48:37 PM EST
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Royal Jordanian Airlines is showing this ad today:

Via The Australian, Donald Trump was asked about the possibility of him losing the election:

"If I don't win, I will consider it a tremendous waste of time, energy and money."

Trump was booed in his own neighborhood as he and Melania went to vote. Then, inside the voting room, he's watching her like a hawk. Does he suspect she's voting for Hillary?

The election night campaign events: Hillary will have two, the first is open to the public (with tickets) at the Jacob Javits convention center, complete with glass ceiling.

Her second, more private affair will be at the Peninsula Hotel on 55th St. Why? No, it's not because it's near Trump Tower (everything in midtown around Fifth Avenue is near Trump Tower.) It's a gorgeous hotel (my three favorite hotels in NY are the Four Seasons (E. 57th), the St. Regis (E. 55th) and the Peninsula (E. 55th.)

Trump will be home watching results at Trump Tower, while Mike Pence hosts a party at the NY Midtown Hilton (W. 54th and 6th Ave.) Reportedly, the campaign has rented a pretty ho-hum size ballroom. It's not a bad hotel, just non-descript. Why not a Trump property? I suspect he is already trying to rebuild his brand by disassociating it from his campaign, but his campaign insists it's because he got fined for the escalator event since TP is a public space, and he's superstitious. Why not the Plaza, which he used to own? It has a 4,800 sq. ft. ballroom and is two blocks from Trump Tower. (Maybe he doesn't want to be reminded he bought it in 1988 for $407.5 million, and sold it in 1995 for only $325 million, after spending a small fortune on renovations.)

Hillary began her campaign by opening an office in Brooklyn. Trump began his with a ride on an escalator, headed down. Hopefully tonight will end with the media focused on Hillary's win instead of Trump's paranoid claims about rigged elections.

Here's an interesting tidbit I just found in his bio on the Trump Organizations' website:

In 2011, after failed attempts by both Senator McCain and Hillary Clinton, Mr. Trump single handedly forced President Obama to release his birth certificate, which was lauded by large segments of the political community.

....Mr. Trump is one of the highest paid speakers in the world, often drawing tens of thousands of people. In September of 2011, Mr. Trump gave a two city speech in Australia, for over 3 million dollars.

Just like his ride down (as opposed to up) an escalator, American voters know Trump would lead this country into a downward spiral. Hillary, on the other hand, has always aimed high. The Javits Center event will be inspirational, historic and memorable. Trump's party will probably end early, if he shows up at all.

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Election Mid-Day Thread | 42 comments (42 topical)

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Any good source of information on how (5.00 / 1) (#2)
by Peter G on Tue Nov 08, 2016 at 03:11:07 PM EST

things are going in Florida? In North Carolina? In Pennsylvania? In Nevada? In Michigan? We need to win at least two of those, right?

Philly (5.00 / 1) (#6)
by BackFromOhio on Tue Nov 08, 2016 at 03:35:45 PM EST

Record turnout reported in Philly - could exceed 2012 level of 70% of RVs


: Philly Update (5.00 / 1) (#15)
by BackFromOhio on Tue Nov 08, 2016 at 04:43:43 PM EST

potential turnout now estimated to be as high as 80% -- wow!

Florida (5.00 / 1) (#8)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Nov 08, 2016 at 03:44:16 PM EST

by the numbers seems to be out of reach for Trump. Duval County is not delivering for him and he has to really run up the numbers there to be able to carry the state. So it seems without Florida Trump has no path.


Pennsylvania (none / 0) (#4)
by BackFromOhio on Tue Nov 08, 2016 at 03:29:13 PM EST

- highest number of reported voter problems today.

Were also many problems here in NY. I got to polling place, not one of 3 scanners working. The Board of Elections (BOE) had been called at 5;30am. At 11;30am, guy arrived, temporarily fixed one machine. Poll workers indicated they believed that machine would break down any minute.

Met a fellow who had tried to vote near Columbia University. Was told he couldn't vote; he was smart enough to go get court order.

Why can't the Boards of Elections across the country test out machines early the morning before, and work through the night if necessary to fix the problems. This is inexcusable. & in NYC where there is a Dem Governor and Mayor. Everyone's asleep at the switch for a change. Shudder to think what's going on elsewhere....


I wondered why people didn't just (5.00 / 2) (#7)
by Jeralyn on Tue Nov 08, 2016 at 03:43:41 PM EST

mail in their ballots or drop them off in person, and now I see that option isn't available everywhere (like NY and PA.) How outdated.


It's ironic (none / 0) (#16)
by BackFromOhio on Tue Nov 08, 2016 at 04:47:18 PM EST

that New York of all places has such anitquated voting procedures.

I hope Hillary gets a Dem Senate and some possibility of passing sweeping election reforms. The hell with leaving all this in the hands of states. We should have vote by mail -- no unreliable machines, no polling sites to create possibility for voter intimidation, etc. with mail-in voting, no long lines, no work day time off issues, no difficulty getting to the polls, etc.


Voting procedures, like (re)districting (none / 0) (#20)
by Peter G on Tue Nov 08, 2016 at 05:00:51 PM EST

is in the hands of the states as a matter of Constitutional law. Not something you can just say "the hell with."


so it would take a Constitutional amendment (none / 0) (#23)
by BackFromOhio on Tue Nov 08, 2016 at 05:09:14 PM EST

a gal can dream....


Wasn't it the HAVA (none / 0) (#25)
by BackFromOhio on Tue Nov 08, 2016 at 05:18:46 PM EST

that required all states to install electronic voting machines?


: Very complicated. Not something I fully (none / 0) (#28)
by Peter G on Tue Nov 08, 2016 at 05:28:37 PM EST

understand without having to go back and look it up whenever a question arises. IIRC, HAVA of 2002 put pressure on the states to reform by creating rules for federal elections, which Congress has more power over. Here is a scholarly chapter on it (9-page PDF). Good luck!

PA does not even (none / 0) (#31)
by Chuck0 on Tue Nov 08, 2016 at 05:35:01 PM EST

have early voting. When I lived in Texas you vote 2 weeks before election day. Amazingly Texas can be progressive in some instances.


Are the great white militia types in Pa (none / 0) (#33)
by jondee on Tue Nov 08, 2016 at 05:45:45 PM EST

showing up at polling places to "monitor" voting, the way some of them have been saying they would in last couple of weeks?


In at least a few places, apparently (none / 0) (#36)
by Peter G on Tue Nov 08, 2016 at 06:06:01 PM EST

yes, I've heard. Not a major problem.


There was one (none / 0) (#39)
by Chuck0 on Tue Nov 08, 2016 at 06:23:10 PM EST

really, really old guy with a Make America Great Again cap outside. That was it. I told him America was already great on my way in to vote.


: Y'know why America is already great? (none / 0) (#42)
by Peter G on Tue Nov 08, 2016 at 06:36:08 PM EST

Because we can decide that the best qualified person to be President is the mixed-race son of a single mother and an African grad student, or is a 69-year-old woman who simply will not be bullied.

Slate (none / 0) (#5)
by FlJoe on Tue Nov 08, 2016 at 03:34:44 PM EST

has a model that is tracking several states. Link With a huge grain of salt, things look good in FL,PA, NH and IA(?) close in NV and OH.


Model, (none / 0) (#10)
by Peter G on Tue Nov 08, 2016 at 04:01:04 PM EST

schmodel. No thanks.


these are guestimates (none / 0) (#17)
by BackFromOhio on Tue Nov 08, 2016 at 04:51:01 PM EST

based on early exit polls (unreliable and wholly changeable later in the day) and, I believe, do not account for early voting or absentee ballots cast.

From what I've read, FL and NC should report official early voting (& absentee ballots?) results soon after closing. If Hillary takes these states, I understand game is over? Although in Durham County, Repub-majority election officials have voted unanimously to keep polls open extra 90 minutes to compensate for machine glitches. Not sure whether this body has the final word.


I don't (none / 0) (#22)
by FlJoe on Tue Nov 08, 2016 at 05:07:23 PM EST

think this model uses exit polling. They use pre election polling, historical trends and most importantly real time turnout data (including early voting). Color me skeptical, but the numbers guy in me sees possibilities if the turnout data was reliable and granular enough.


According to (none / 0) (#24)
by BackFromOhio on Tue Nov 08, 2016 at 05:16:13 PM EST

the NYTimes, Votecastr is based on real time turnout in sample (100) precincts. And turnout can vary considerably over the full day of voting.


: 100 (none / 0) (#35)
by FlJoe on Tue Nov 08, 2016 at 06:02:34 PM EST

precincts seems fine for IA and NH, iffy for OH and PA and almost useless in FL(IMO).
The authors make it clear that this is not a prediction, they admit that turnout can vary during the day, it appears to me that they have the intention of calling the "score" as they see it at that instant.

Durham County NC (none / 0) (#26)
by CoralGables on Tue Nov 08, 2016 at 05:21:48 PM EST

is a hugely Democratic County. My daughter lives there.

Latest voter registration totals:
Democratic - 127,901
Unaffiliated- 70,664
Republican - 29,573
Libertarian - 10,056

As of now, the state has not yet approved the extended hours. Of course, if you're in line you get to vote.


Peter I can honestly only give (none / 0) (#14)
by fishcamp on Tue Nov 08, 2016 at 04:37:43 PM EST

an accurate fishing report, and its good...oops, this just in...more than half the voters in Broward County have been Democrats, so far. Coral Gables usually has the latest info.


Towanda (5.00 / 1) (#29)
by CoralGables on Tue Nov 08, 2016 at 05:31:30 PM EST

Although many of us here get emotionally involved in elections, I know of no one that has spent the greater portion of their years in an area where the result of a single election encompasses their life's work.

In that regard, I wish you the best of luck this evening.

Did something today I never thought I would do (5.00 / 1) (#30)
by coast on Tue Nov 08, 2016 at 05:32:04 PM EST

Voted "D" for top of the ticket.

I went for the status quo and voted straight "R" down ticket.

Both candidates are majorly flawed individuals. Whichever party loses tonight, they only have themselves to blame. Either party could have put up another candidate who would likely win in a landslide against either of the current candidates.

This was too much to watch much of the time, and I'm happy that it will be over in a few hours.

all candidates (none / 0) (#32)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Nov 08, 2016 at 05:44:20 PM EST

are flawed every election. However this time we have one who has zero experience and who would collapse the economy as shown by even the thought of him become president and what happened.

Republicans are never going to get a landslide in their current form. The only way they are going to win the same way George W. Bush won which was by a hair.


Completely agree that my party (none / 0) (#34)
by coast on Tue Nov 08, 2016 at 05:57:24 PM EST

needs to change if it is to win a national election. But I also believe that most of the other R candidates would not have stuck their foot in their mouth as often as this candidate has.


I (none / 0) (#37)
by FlJoe on Tue Nov 08, 2016 at 06:12:47 PM EST

would venture that 99.9% of the human race do not stick their foot in their mouth as much as this "this candidate".


: can't argue with you there. (none / 0) (#41)
by coast on Tue Nov 08, 2016 at 06:32:30 PM EST

They all had big time baggage (none / 0) (#38)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Nov 08, 2016 at 06:12:51 PM EST

that would have made them lose. The biggest baggage the GOP has though is its stances on issues. It's what happened to Romney. Maybe if he had been able to run as "Moderate Mitt" and not have had to sign onto all the GOP issues he might have been able to win the presidential election. Until Republicans start telling their voters the truth nothing is going to change.


Like Father... (none / 0) (#1)
by MileHi Hawkeye on Tue Nov 08, 2016 at 03:00:41 PM EST

like son.

As any teacher knows ... (none / 0) (#3)
by Erehwon on Tue Nov 08, 2016 at 03:28:58 PM EST

Does he suspect she's voting for Hillary?

Donald's only checking whether his answers are correct ...

Turnout seems high everywhere (none / 0) (#9)
by CST on Tue Nov 08, 2016 at 03:52:37 PM EST

I am both excited and terrified by that information.

I am never terrified by a high voter turnout (5.00 / 1) (#27)
by CoralGables on Tue Nov 08, 2016 at 05:23:24 PM EST

It's the way the system is meant to run.


Everything I have (none / 0) (#11)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Nov 08, 2016 at 04:02:22 PM EST

read and BTD has been tracking it on twitter is that they are Dem areas. Places where Romney won big are not getting the numbers.


That's Florida (none / 0) (#12)
by CST on Tue Nov 08, 2016 at 04:07:15 PM EST

Ohio is the opposite. PA is everywhere, no idea about Michigan, North Carolina is a travesty.

Florida is great news and could be enough, but it is still unclear what is happening elsewhere.


Okay. I did not even know (5.00 / 1) (#18)
by Ga6thDem on Tue Nov 08, 2016 at 04:51:53 PM EST

there were any updates on Ohio yet. PA is having record turnout in Philly. Bad news for Trump. Yeah, NC had to leave polls open longer due to a lot of problems. Why don't all the states just go to vote by mail? All these problems would be completely eliminated.


: I can tell you why, at least as far as (none / 0) (#21)
by Peter G on Tue Nov 08, 2016 at 05:04:23 PM EST

Pennsylvania is concerned. Because our gerrymandered, minority R-dominated state Legislature, for entirely partisan reasons, does not support the idea of everyone voting. If we had real equal voting rights and democracy, they would be out of power.

Yes - turnout in (none / 0) (#19)
by BackFromOhio on Tue Nov 08, 2016 at 04:53:58 PM EST

County in which Cleveland is located is down. Not good for Dems.


Melania was wearing (none / 0) (#13)
by ding7777 on Tue Nov 08, 2016 at 04:32:56 PM EST

suffragette white under her coat

J, don't know how its going... (none / 0) (#40)
by MileHi Hawkeye on Tue Nov 08, 2016 at 06:23:25 PM EST

in your neck of the woods, but as of 5pm, its like a neighborhood block party at my CapHill polling place. Food trucks, Channel 7 doing a live feed and a line of people waiting to vote going down Downing to 8th Ave. and then a block down 8th.

Luckily, I was able to walk right up to the drop-off box and do my civic duty.